Militants, Women and Tahrir Sq.

February 5, 2011
NYT
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF

CAIRO

When Westerners watched television images of the popular uprising against President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, they winced at the government’s thuggery toward protesters. But some also flinched at the idea of a popular democracy that might give greater voice to Islamic fundamentalism.

In 1979, a grass-roots uprising in Iran led to an undemocratic regime that oppresses women and minorities and destabilizes the region. In 1989, uprisings in Eastern Europe led to the rise of stable democracies. So if Egyptian protesters overcome the government, would this be 1979 or 1989?

No one can predict with certainty. But let me try to offer a dose of reassurance.

After spending last week here on Tahrir Square, talking to protesters — even as President Mubarak’s thugs attacked our perimeter with bricks, Molotov cocktails, machetes and occasional gunfire — I emerge struck by the moderation and tolerance of most protesters.

Maybe my judgment is skewed because pro-Mubarak thugs tried to hunt down journalists, leading some of us to be stabbed, beaten and arrested — and forcing me to abandon hotel rooms and sneak with heart racing around mobs carrying clubs with nails embedded in them. The place I felt safest was Tahrir Square — “free Egypt,” in the protesters’ lexicon — where I could pull out a camera and notebook and ask anybody any question.

I constantly asked women and Coptic Christians whether a democratic Egypt might end up a more oppressive country. They invariably said no — and looked so reproachfully at me for doubting democracy that I sometimes retreated in embarrassment.

“If there is a democracy, we will not allow our rights to be taken away from us,” Sherine, a university professor, told me (I’m not using full names to protect the protesters). Like many, she said that Americans were too obsessed with the possibility of the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood gaining power in elections.

“We do not worry about the Muslim Brotherhood,” Sherine said. “They might win 25 percent of the votes, but if they do not perform then they will not get votes the next time.”

Sherine has a point. Partly because of Western anxieties, fundamentalist Muslims have rarely run anything — so instead they lead the way in denouncing the corruption, incompetence and brutality of pro-Western autocrats like Mr. Mubarak. The upshot is that they win respect from many ordinary citizens, but my hunch is that they would lose support if they actually tried to administer anything.

For example, in 1990s Yemen, an Islamic party named Islah became part of a coalition government after doing well in elections. As a result, Islah was put in charge of the Education Ministry. Secular Yemenis and outsiders were aghast that fundamentalists might brainwash children, but the Islamists mostly proved that they were incompetent at governing. In the next election, their support tumbled.

It’s true that one of the most common protester slogans described Mr. Mubarak as a stooge of America, and many Egyptians chafe at what they see as a supine foreign policy. I saw one caricature of Mr. Mubarak with a Star of David on his forehead and, separately, a sign declaring: “Tell him in Hebrew, and then he might get the message!” Yet most people sounded pragmatic, favoring continued peace with Israel while also more outspoken support for Palestinians, especially those suffering in Gaza.

I asked an old friend here in Cairo, a woman with Western tastes that include an occasional glass of whiskey, whether the Muslim Brotherhood might be bad for peace. She thought for a moment and said: “Yes, possibly. But, from my point of view, in America the Republican Party is bad for peace as well.”

If democracy gains in the Middle East, there will be some demagogues, nationalists and jingoists, just as there are in America and Israel, and they may make diplomacy more complicated. But remember that it’s Mr. Mubarak’s repression, imprisonment and torture that nurtured angry extremists like Ayman al-Zawahri of Al Qaeda, the right-hand man of Osama bin Laden. It would be tragic if we let our anxieties impede our embrace of freedom and democracy in the world’s most populous Arab nation.

I’m so deeply moved by the grit that Egyptians have shown in struggling against the regime — and by the help that some provided me, at great personal risk, in protecting me from thugs dispatched by America’s ally. Let’s show some faith in the democratic ideals for which these Egyptians are risking their lives.

I think of Hamdi, a businessman who looked pained when I asked whether Egyptian democracy might lead to oppression or to upheavals with Israel or the price of oil. “The Middle East is not only for oil,” he reminded me. “We are human beings, exactly like you people.”

“We don’t hate the American people,” he added. “They are pioneers. We want to be like them. Is that a crime?”

•

I invite you to visit my blog, On the Ground, where I am posting from Cairo whenever I have Internet access. You can also follow my updates on Facebook and Twitter.

As Mubarak clings to power, Egypt suffers

By Leila Fadel and Howard Schneider
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, February 5, 2011; 9:53 PM

CAIRO - Nearly two weeks of political turmoil has taken a toll on Egypt's infrastructure and economy, with most businesses shuttered, banks closed and tourists avoiding the country as the crisis drags on.

Before the turmoil began, Tahrir Square was the busy center of this capital. But pro-Mubarak forces and anti-government demonstrators have turned the famed plaza into their battleground, as a global audience watches.

The district that includes Cairo's famous pyramids, an area usually bustling with nightclubs, casinos and shops, was ransacked by vandals and looters, who set fire to some of the establishments.

Egyptians have not been paid, and many are in need of cash.

While foreign investment is rising, the demonstrators took to the streets because many could not afford food in a country where opportunities are reserved for the elite. Almost half of Egyptians live at or below the poverty line.

But analysts say President Hosni Mubarak's strategy relies on allowing chaos to continue so that Egyptians will yearn for the stability that his iron-fisted and sometimes brutal style brought.

"The longer the demonstrations go, the bigger the risk that regime elements will undermine the revolution," said Shadi Hamid, an Egypt expert at the Brookings Doha Center. "They have total momentum, but they can't keep it up indefinitely."

In a small deli in the upper-class neighborhood of Zamalek, a group of friends debated what comes next for Egypt. This island in the Nile River has been largely untouched by the chaos taking place on the other side of the bridges that connect it to downtown.

"I'm really lost. I don't know what's wrong and what's right," said Nada Nassar, 25, who works in advertising and hasn't been paid since the crisis started. "I wanted [Mubarak] to leave, but now I don't know if things will be worse if he does."

"After 30 years of oppression, this is just a small price to pay," added Karim Khater, 30, wearing an argyle sweater and eating french fries. Mubarak "has a divide and conquer strategy. He managed to split the people's opinions."

The economic fallout may start to become clear Sunday when banks reopen for the first time in a week. Analysts said the country could face a flight of capital as investors and others pull money out of an unsteady system. The country has about $35 billionin foreign reserves, probably enough to keep the value of the Egyptian pound from falling too far, too fast - at least in the short term.

But protracted political paralysis or further violence could alienate foreign investors. Egypt attracted close to $10 billion in foreign direct investment last year and had based its economic plans on receiving a similar amount in 2011 and the years ahead.

That's now unlikely, and revenue from tourism and other sources is bound to dry up. The country needs to grow about 6 percent a year to handle the number of young people entering the work force, but recent events may lead to a year or more of stagnation. Egypt's credit rating and economic outlook were downgraded because of the unrest. Credit Agricole bank now projects that Egypt's growth forecast is 3.7 percent compared with its earlier prediction of 5.3 percent.

Both Egypt and Tunisia, where mass protests also challenged an entrenched regime, have been growing below their potential and below the levels needed for the poor and middle class to feel the benefits, said George Abed, director of the Middle East Department at the Institute of International Finance.

Egypt has received low marks in corruption and transparency indexes. Promised reforms in banking and other key sectors were never carried out. With government deficits high and the price of food and other staples rising, the financial pressure on any new government will be immense as it tries to show it can make a quick improvement in people's lives.

"There will be a lot of pieces to pick up," Abed said.

The destruction is evident across the streets of the capital. The stock exchange building is empty, except for a few security guards outside. It will remain closed for at least the next two days. Most ATMs have run out of cash. A street leading to the pyramids is filled with military tanks and hotel and restaurant owners cleaning up the debris.

At least 300 looters descended on the area last week, and human rights activists, demonstrators and some business owners think they were hired thugs loyal to Mubarak's government.

Near the pyramids, the manager of the Abul Houl Palace surveyed the damage. He went to the front of the building where there once was a door and glass windows. Now there is a gaping hole.

"We couldn't stop them. Who knows if we can recover," he said, slumping into a plastic chair.

A fire has left the lobby jet black. Everything is gone except for a yellow guest book. At least $30,000 was taken from the safe.

But for many of the demonstrators camped out in Tahrir Square, the economic toll of the turmoil was of little concern because the banking sector and stock market never benefited them.

Mohammed el-Safdi, 32, sat inside a makeshift hospital in the square, his arm in a sling and a bruise on his face where he was hit with a brick during clashes with pro-Mubarak forces last week. He laughed bitterly about Egypt's future economic problems.

"You think we have money in the bank? We don't have money to eat," he said, his laughter quickly turning to tears. "Mubarak destroyed us for decades."

fadell@washpost.com schneiderh@washpost.com

For cautious Mubarak, change became overwhelming

The Washington Post
By Will Englund and Samuel Sockol
Saturday, February 5, 2011; 9:38 PM

CAIRO - Hosni Mubarak kept Egypt under total control for nearly three decades, not through charisma or inspiration, but by building a system of patronage and brutality that was beyond challenge. In the past two weeks, those methods have failed him.

The popular uprising in the Arab world's biggest country has tested the limits of Mubarak's reliance on the system he inherited and reshaped, and his frequent threat that, without him in charge, the country would face chaos - a tradeoff that the country's middle and upper classes have not been willing to make.

Change here has been pushed by a new generation that refuses to accept the rationalizations of its parents. When the economy began to sour two years ago, young people discovered that a system built on nepotism and bribery was shutting them out of university slots and jobs. Their grievances mounted, and then spilled out on the streets, with demands for an end to Mubarak's authoritarian rule.

Mubarak - aloof and, up to now, savvy about keeping himself in power - attracts great loyalty, still, of course.

His followers call him their father and protector. But interwoven with the passion and faith of those on his side are new feelings - of sympathy. After he addressed the nation Tuesday night, in his pleasant baritone, supporters on the streets of Cairo argued that he's an old man, at 82, and should be allowed his dignity.

Aladdin Elaasar, author of the book "The Last Pharaoh,'' calls Mubarak's government "a neo-sultanistic regime." It's a system, he writes, based not on ideology or even leadership qualities, but on "a mixture of fear and rewards to his collaborators."

Or, as Elaasar put it: "The ruler exercises his power without restraint, at his own discretion."
The blinded 'hero'

Mubarak sits atop the pyramid of Egyptian society. Orders flow down, and money - almost certainly - flows up. Egyptian corruption grew to enormous proportions under him.

"But it was very comfortable for him," said Amaney Jamal, an expert on Arab politics at Princeton University. "He felt the status quo was sustainable."

Under this structure, what doesn't flow back up to the top is reliable information. Mubarak's Egypt is a nation with a huge and pervading police structure, but critics say its spies and torturers were incapable of presenting a reliable picture of the country to the people at the apex, because they rejected anything that didn't fit their own view. "We live in a triangle society," said Abd Al Rahman, an English teacher. The subordinate's duty is to obey, not to discuss and never to question.

This is a weakness of any hierarchical structure, but in Egypt's case it became nearly absolute.

"He has merged his own ego with the state," said Dina Guirguis, of a Washington-based group called Voices for a Democratic Egypt. "He views himself as Egypt's hero."

But more and more, the hero, blinded perhaps by his own certainty, began to make missteps. Parliamentary elections in November and December were rigged so blatantly that even Mubarak's allies wince and acknowledge that the parliament has to go, if not immediately then soon.

A nimble authoritarian government would have flexed as grievances over corruption and the closing of opportunity grew. But Mubarak's has been neither nimble nor subtle.

Nor has he devoted attention to making his case to the Egyptian people. "He did not value the importance of politics," said a member of his own party, Abdel Monem Ali Sayed, president of the al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
Careful conservative

Mubarak was in the air force before he was in politics, and spent the better part of seven years on assignments in the Soviet Union. Protesters like Amr Birmawi, a journalist who spent three years in prison on terrorism charges, today say that Egypt's president absorbed a Russian military mentality - attack from the front, and keep attacking.

Considered a hero for his role in the 1973 war against Israel, Mubarak was chosen by Anwar Sadat to be vice president, and rose to the top position in 1981 when Sadat was assassinated.

Unlike Sadat, and especially unlike Gamel Abdel Nasser before him, Mubarak has no outstanding personality traits, Jamal said. "But everyone [in his inner circle] was invested in keeping him in power," she said, and Mubarak reaped the considerable benefits.

He was careful to keep the military on his side, even as he steered Egypt away from Nasser's Arab socialism, which the officer corps felt comfortable with, toward a more capitalist economy.

While there is widespread poverty, in the early 2000s a well-connected and astonishingly wealthy sliver of society emerged.

"He has done a lot of good things," said Mohamed Al Masry, former chairman of the Egyptian Chamber of Commerce. Industry, trade and tourism all prospered under Mubarak, he said.

The standard of living has gone up as well as life expectancy, said Sayed, who belongs to Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party. "But he did not match economic progress with political progress, and therefore he did not allow enough real political reform," Sayed said.

Instead, the system has been marked by spasms of brutal repression interspersed with periods of lighter authoritarianism and modest freedoms. Mubarak's police are a deeply feared force here; they beat and torture suspects, and have packed away thousands to long prison terms. Those who have amassed enormous wealth in Egypt, on the other hand, have done so through access to state-sanctioned monopolies.

Mubarak has attempted to portray himself as Washington's indispensable man in the Middle East, willing to deal with the Israelis, to act as a constraint on the Palestinians, to be a bulwark against Islamic extremism. But one result has been that the grievances that have piled up under him among Egyptians have a distinctly anti-American shading.

"You know all these tanks?" said protester Abdelfattah Zeden one day on Tahrir Square. "They're American-made."

At the same time, Mubarak up to now has had little patience for American prodding on democratic reform. "Certainly the public 'name and shame' approach in recent years strengthened his determination not to accommodate our views," wrote an American diplomat in 2009, in a diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks. "He is a tried-and-true realist, innately cautious and conservative, and has little time for idealistic goals."

But if he's a realist, he's stuck in the 20th century. Nearly half of Egypt's population is between ages 15 and 32. They're spending their formative years on Facebook. He spent his at an air base in what was then Soviet Kyrgyzia.

Sockol is a special correspondent.

Egypt's opposition parties fracture as talks with government begin

By Griff Witte , Mary Beth Sheridan and Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, February 5, 2011; 11:14 PM

CAIRO - Egypt's opposition groups fractured Saturday over an invitation from Vice President Omar Suleiman to begin talks on a government transition, as President Hosni Mubarak gave little indication that he is willing to cede the levers of power.

Suleiman met with representatives from several opposition parties. But both the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest opposition group, and Mohamed ElBaradei, the chosen spokesman of anti-Mubarak demonstrators, refused to attend.

A council of prominent Egyptian "wise men," respected leaders who the Obama administration had hoped would bless the talks, also stayed away after Mubarak held a morning cabinet meeting on the economy that they took as a signal he has no intention of relinquishing his job.

Administration officials expressed disappointment that the dialogue had failed to get off the ground. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, speaking at a defense conference in Munich, urged opposition leaders not to reject talks out of hand and warned that the alternative could be a takeover by radicals.

Some opposition figures interpreted her comments as a step back from President Obama's call Tuesday for Mubarak to begin a transition from power "now."

"If the message coming now from Washington is that Mubarak can continue and his head of intelligence will lead the change, this will send the completely wrong message to the Egyptian people," ElBaradei said in an interview Saturday night. Suleiman served as Mubarak's intelligence chief for two decades before being named vice president as the crisis unfolded last week.

The exchange illustrated the delicacy of the U.S. position in the crisis. It was also the latest indication of the difficulty the administration has encountered in trying to guide the fast-moving events in Egypt toward a resolution that meets what Obama has called the legitimate reform demands of the protesters while not appearing to abruptly jettison a long-standing ally.

Obama and his top national security officials have been careful not to call directly for Mubarak to stand down - although they have made clear they would not object if he did, provided the transition is "orderly." But they have advised him to stand aside while government and opposition leaders negotiate a lifting of emergency laws and other restrictions on political freedoms and civil liberties and undertake constitutional reforms leading to free and fair elections.

In a speech Tuesday night following a telephone call to Mubarak, Obama praised the "passion and dignity" of the protesters, spoke of the "will of the people" and said the transition "must begin now." Many in Cairo interpreted those words as a thinly veiled invitation to Mubarak to resign.

After violent clashes between protesters and pro-Mubarak gangs on Wednesday and Thursday - and rising concern in Washington that radical elements in the Muslim Brotherhood were seeking advantage in the chaos - administration officials promoted the dialogue with Suleiman. Officials urged the "wise men" and the respected Egyptian army to serve as guarantors of the talks.

In her remarks in Munich, Clinton called on the government to take further steps. But she also warned that if the transition is not carried out in an orderly, deliberate way, there are forces "that will try to derail or overtake the process, to pursue their own specific agenda" - an apparent reference to the Muslim Brotherhood - "which is why I think it's important to support the transition process announced by the Egyptian government, actually headed now by Vice President Omar Suleiman."

In addition to Clinton's remarks, the perceived dissonance in the administration's message Saturday was exacerbated when Frank Wisner, a former diplomat dispatched by Obama last week to help ease Mubarak from power, said that the Egyptian president should stay in his post for the near future.

"President Mubarak remains utterly critical in the days ahead as we sort our way toward the future," Wisner told the Munich conference via video link from New York.

A senior administration official expressed chagrin at Wisner's comments, which he said were "self-evidently divergent from our public message" and "not coordinated with the United States" government. "He's a delightful man," the official said. "But he's doing his own thing."

But the official acknowledged that the administration may quickly face a new dilemma if talks remain at a standstill and it is called on to choose sides between the adamant opposition and a dug-in Mubarak.

"If a dialogue is not going to happen, either because the government is not going to come through, or the people on the other side are not going to participate," the administration official said, the Egyptians "need to come up with another mechanism to arrive at the same outcome."

In Cairo's Tahrir Square, where thousands of demonstrators remained Saturday under a light drizzle, there were signs that some have begun to blame the United States for Mubarak's intransigence. Protesters were flanked by a large banner that read: "No Mubarak, no Suleiman. Both are American Agents." Referring to Mubarak, they chanted, "No negotiations before he leaves."

The White House indicated that it has not given up hope for the dialogue. In a call Saturday to Suleiman, Vice President Biden "asked about progress" in the talks and "stressed the need for a concrete reform agenda, a clear timeline, and immediate steps that demonstrate to the public and the opposition that the Egyptian government is committed to reform," a White House statement said.

Obama, in calls to the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Britain and Germany, "emphasized the importance of an orderly, peaceful transition, beginning now, to a government that is responsive to the aspirations of the Egyptian people, including credible, inclusive negotiations between the government and the opposition," according to a separate statement.

The White House welcomed an announcement on Egyptian state television that the top leadership of the ruling National Democratic Party, including the president's son, Gamal Mubarak, had resigned.

Those Egyptian leaders who were willing to talk to Suleiman on Saturday said that the dialogue appeared the only viable way out of the crisis short of an army takeover. Mounir Fakhry Abdel Nour, secretary general of the liberal Wafd Party, said they had presented the vice president with proposals for constitutional change.

He said that Suleiman mostly listened but at one point told the Wafd officials that "we need to go ahead with this as soon as possible." Suleiman also ruled out Mubarak's resignation from the presidency, however. "Not only will he not resign, he will not cede or delegate his powers," Nour said.

Some of the 30 or so "wise men," who include intellectuals and civil society leaders, said Suleiman had not responded to a proposal that would allow Mubarak to remain in office as a figurehead until September elections, while delegating most of his powers to Suleiman.

But others were adamant that the Egyptian leader's departure was the only possible solution. "Mubarak needs to go as a precondition of talks," ElBaradei said. "If you really want change," he said, "you have to depart completely from this pseudo-democracy. And that's not happening. It's not only that Mubarak isn't leaving. It's that he and his vice president have been making only peanut concessions."

The roads leading to Tahrir Square remained under tight security Saturday as the army tried to persuade demonstrators - who continued building makeshift barricades to hold their ground - to go home.

Troops began corralling the protesters into a smaller portion of the square, arguing that traffic has to begin flowing through central Cairo streets that have been blocked since the demonstrations began 12 days ago. But any effort to remove the thousands who remain was likely to result in a major clash.

Both Obama and Biden, in their calls today, sharply warned the government against a repeat of the pro-Mubarak attacks on the demonstrators. U.S. defense chiefs, who have publicly praised the army's protective and apolitical stance, have reinforced that message in repeated calls to their Egyptian counterparts.

Diaa Rashwan, an analyst at the al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies and a member of the "wise men" group, said that "very hard negotiations are going on" between Mubarak and his military leaders.

"The army," he said, "cannot stand for long this pressure that has been building on the streets, this loss of life and lack of security."

witteg@washpost.com sheridanm@washpost.com deyoungk@washpost.com

Sheridan reported from Munich, DeYoung from Washington. Correspondents Michael Birnbaum in Munich and Ernesto Londono and Craig Whitlock in Cairo and special correspondents Samuel Sockol and Sherine Bayoumi in Cairo also contributed to this report.

Anti-government protests in Egypt

After Mubarak, what's next for Egypt?

The Washington Post
Sunday, February 6, 2011;

The Post asked experts what should happen in Egypt after Mubarak. Below are responses from Michele Dunne, John R. Bolton, Newt Gingrich, Shadi Hamid, Aaron David Miller, Salman Shaikh, and Dina Guirguis.

MICHELE DUNNE

Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and editor of Arab Reform Bulletin

After Hosni Mubarak surrenders his powers, a transitional government should oversee a process leading to free and fair presidential and parliamentary elections within six to nine months. Ideally, the transitional government should include respected figures from the Mubarak government, senior judges and members of opposition groups.

The parliament fraudulently elected in November should be dissolved (preferably as Mubarak's final act as president), the state of emergency in place since 1981 lifted, and a constitutional assembly composed of judges and civil society figures convened to draft significant amendments to the Egyptian constitution. At a minimum, articles will need to be amended to ease eligibility to run for the presidency and to form political parties, establishing presidential term limits, and to form a credible independent commission to administer elections. Other objectionable provisions of the constitution - allowing authorities to set aside human rights protections in terrorism cases, for example - should be amended at the same time.

This is an ideal scenario; actual developments are unlikely to unfold this smoothly. What is important is that Egypt should move toward a fully democratic system rather than a military regime or a slightly liberalized autocracy.

JOHN R. BOLTON

Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; U.S. ambassador to the United Nations from August 2005 to December 2006

In Egypt, fierce popular demands for President Hosni Mubarak's immediate departure may prevail, although he has upheld peace with Israel and alignment with America for 30 years. But everyone will remember that we treated the autocratic Mubarak like a used Kleenex, at a potentially huge cost to us, Israel, friendly Arab regimes and other "allies" globally.

Conceptually, of course, America supports democracy, but calling for it is not tantamount to achieving it. Terrorists and totalitarians masquerading as political parties are not democrats. Democracy is a way of life, not simply the counting of votes, which can lead back to anti-democratic rule, as Russia and Lebanon now demonstrate.

Egypt's real regime is the military establishment, which must restore stability, domestically and in the Middle East, to allow whatever progress toward a truly democratic culture may emerge. The idea that immediate elections will bring the Age of Aquarius to Egypt is misguided; far better to proceed when true democrats, not just the Muslim Brotherhood, are ready.

In international politics, as in everyday life, strongly held moral or philosophical principles can come into conflict, requiring painful choices. Pursuing one value or ideal unswervingly and hoping the rest will ultimately fall into place is wishful thinking.

NEWT GINGRICH

Republican speaker of the House from 1995 to 1999

The No. 1 American goal in Egypt should be to avoid the weakness, confusion, self-deception and timidity that led the Carter administration in 1979 to demoralize the Iranian military and to allow the replacement of an American ally with an enemy.

That error of weakness has endangered the United States for the past 32 years.

A Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government would be a catastrophe of the first order. The brotherhood's insignia is two crossed swords under the Koran. Its founding slogan is "Allah is our objective, the Prophet is our leader, the Koran is our law, Jihad is our way, and dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope."

No American should have any doubt that a military defense of order and a leadership committed to working with America is the only outcome that is not a strategic disaster in Egypt.

SHADI HAMID

Director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at Brookings' Saban Center for Middle East Policy

"Transition" has become one of the most misused and misunderstood words in the American political lexicon. No one seems exactly sure what it means. What we do know, though, is that democratic transitions are notoriously messy affairs. Both sides make compromises. And it always seems like the good side - the pro-democracy one - makes more.

The playbook goes something like this: Facing popular pressure, ruling elites realize they have to make concessions. Opposition elites enter into negotiations and, based on each side's relative strength and momentum, as well as international pressure, the slow, difficult work begins.

In Egypt, an interim "national unity government," representing the full range of parties (including the Muslim Brotherhood and reform-minded ruling-party officials), should be established, with the military acting as guardian. It would oversee the drafting of a new constitution that restrains the power of the executive branch. (Egyptians should consider whether it's time to shift to a parliamentary system.) There should be six months of free, unfettered political participation so that secular parties - which are extremely weak in Egypt - are able to build organizational infrastructure, gain members and get their message out. Then, if we're lucky, Egypt holds its first free elections in more than six decades.

The international factor may prove decisive in ensuring the parties stick with the road map. Fortunately, the United States has $1.5 billion in annual assistance to use as leverage. It should also consider significantly increasing aid to ensure the new governments meet key benchmarks on democratization.

AARON DAVID MILLER

Public policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars; former Arab-Israeli peace negotiator for the State Department

What should come after Hosni Mubarak is a free Egypt transitioning to a democratic polity, carrying out its treaty obligations with Israel, and cooperating closely with the United States on peace and security in a way that advances both nations' interests.

What will come after Mubarak is another matter. The gap between what should happen and what will is considerable, as is the gap between our own vision and our capacity to affect it; that goes as well for the demonstrators and the regime.

The challenges that a freer Egypt will face - assuming that a transition takes place without massive violence and a breakdown of order - are also considerable. Moving quickly from authoritarian rule to democratic governance will be excruciatingly painful, but possible. Institutions that have been frozen for decades will have to adjust to more accountability and transparency; a new contract will have to be negotiated between civilians and authorities, and the military will be reluctant to abandon its centrality in Egypt's life. All of this will have to be done within a constitutional framework that needs revision. A tall order for any country, let alone one where the vast majority of the population lives on less than $4 a day.

As for the United States and Israel, they'll have to get used to a more critical, political elite in Egypt - now more responsive to public opinion. This won't produce a breakdown of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty or a break in U.S.-Egyptian relations. But the space for maneuver on issues such as counterterrorism, containment of Iran, Gaza and the peace process will narrow.

I'd like to be upbeat about the future; and I suspect the transition over the long arc of history will leave Egypt,its politics and its people better off. But I'm also reminded of Robert Penn Warren's observation: "History like nature knows no jumps, except the jump backward, maybe."

SALMAN SHAIKH

Director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy

With one president down in the Arab region and another in jeopardy, people wonder which regime is next to go? But focusing on the headcount may miss the point.

Some Arab leaders have responded to the demands mounting on them. Over the past week alone, Abdelaziz Bouteflika of Algeria has offered to end 19 years of emergency rule; Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh announced that he would step down in 2013; and Syria's Bashar al-Assad promised long-stalled political reforms. In each case, it may not be enough. Regardless, their regimes are being forced to make changes that may ultimately affect the nature of their rule.

It is clear that the Arab region has already moved to a new era. The implications for U.S. policymakers are going to be profound.

President Obama got it right in Cairo in June 2009 when he observed that governments that protected human rights "were ultimately more stable, successful and secure." The question that remains is: Why does the United States support societies in the Arab region that are the opposite of its own?

Washington has another opportunity to alter its behavior and support the region's largely unchartered transition to a democratic future. In doing so, it would start a real, productive dialogue with many peoples that previously hasn't existed.

DINA GUIRGUIS

Executive director of Voices for a Democratic Egypt

Egyptians seek a democratic transformation, not another military dictatorship or a theocracy. Hosni Mubarak should transfer his presidential powers and step down. A transitional national unity government representing diverse political forces and composed of respected independent figures should be installed; their first order of business should be to lift Egypt's notorious "emergency" law, with which Mubarak has governed the country for 30 years. Next, they should approve the formation of a committee of independent legal experts to draft a new constitution enshrining principles of true citizenship, religious and political pluralism, and the civil (non-religious) nature of the Egyptian state. The military should preserve and protect Egypt's newly drafted constitution and the civil nature of the state.

Egypt's two national legislative bodies, the Shura Council and People's Assembly, should be dissolved, as their current composition is the result of elections marred by substantial documented irregularities. The government should establish a timetable to hold both parliamentary and presidential elections. Meanwhile, the transitional government should rapidly move toward opening up the political space, through permitting and encouraging free media, embracing civil society, ensuring the judiciary's independence, and relaxing laws governing the establishment and operation of political parties. The new government should likewise move toward restructuring the state security apparatus and remove its jurisdiction over political matters, such as sectarian violence.

What Mubarak must do before he resigns

By Hossam Bahgat and Soha Abdelaty
Saturday, February 5, 2011;
The Washington Post

CAIRO

As Egyptian citizens and human rights defenders, we have been on the streets here, including in Tahrir Square, since Jan. 25 to demand dignity and freedom for all Egyptians. There is nothing we want more than an immediate end to the Mubarak era, which has been marred by repression, abuse and injustice. We are heartened by the international community's shift from demanding "restraint" and "responsiveness" to echoing our call for Hosni Mubarak to step down and for an immediate transition toward democracy.

But for a real transition to democracy to begin, Mubarak must not resign until he has signed decrees that, under Egypt's constitution, only a president can issue. This is not simply a legal technicality; it is, as Nathan Brown recently blogged for ForeignPolicy.com, the only way out of our nation's political crisis.

Egypt's constitution stipulates that if the president resigns or his office becomes permanently "vacant," he must be replaced by the speaker of parliament or, in the absence of parliament, the chief justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court. In the event of the president's temporary inability to exercise his prerogatives, the vice president is to take over as the interim head of state. In both cases a new president must be elected within 60 days. Significantly, the constitution prohibits the interim president from introducing constitutional amendments, dissolving parliament or dismissing the cabinet.

If today Mubarak were no longer available to fulfill his role as president, the interim president would be one of two candidates. If he chooses to leave the country, say for "medical reasons," the interim president would be Omar Suleiman, the former intelligence chief who was recently made vice president. Egyptians, particularly those of us calling for an end to Mubarak's three-decade rule, see Suleiman as Mubarak II, especially after the lengthy interview he gave to state television Feb. 3 in which he accused the demonstrators in Tahrir Square of implementing foreign agendas. He did not even bother to veil his threats of retaliation against protesters.

On the other hand, if Mubarak is pushed to resign immediately we would have an even worse interim president: Fathi Surur, who has been speaker of the People's Assembly since 1990. Surur has long employed his legal expertise to maintain and add to the arsenal of abusive laws that Mubarak's regime has used against the Egyptian people. Since neither Suleiman nor Surur would be able to amend the constitution during the interim tenure, the next presidential election would be conducted under the notoriously restrictive election rules Mubarak introduced in 2007. That would effectively guarantee that no credible candidate would be able to run against the interim president.

So before Mubarak resigns he must sign a presidential decree delegating all of his authorities to his vice president until their current terms end in September. Mubarak issued similar decrees, transferring his powers to the prime minister, when he was hospitalized in 2004 and 2009. In addition, Mubarak must issue decrees lifting the "state of emergency" that has allowed him to suppress Egyptians' civil liberties since 1981 and ordering the release or trial of those held in administrative detention without charge - estimated to be in the thousands.

Also before Mubarak resigns, an independent commission of respected judges, constitutional law experts, civil society representatives and all political movements should draft language to amend the constitution to ensure that presidential elections are open to all credible candidates; that Egyptians abroad are allowed - for the first time - to vote; that any elected president is allowed to serve only two terms; and that the elections are supervised by judicial and civil monitors. Most of this will be a matter of undoing the damage Mubarak inflicted with his constitutional changes in 2007.

These amendments must be introduced in parliament and put to a public referendum immediately. Suleiman's claim that time is short is unfounded and disingenuous; four years ago, Mubarak and his ruling party amended 34 articles of the constitution in only two months.

Next, a diverse caretaker government must be appointed to serve the people until a president is elected and, importantly, to oversee the interim president. This broad-based cabinet must include well-respected representatives of all the country's political forces. Once a new president is elected, we can move toward drafting a constitution that ensures Egypt's transformation from a dictatorship to a democracy and enshrines full equality and human rights. Free and fair parliamentary elections would follow.

Three additional elements are key for the transition to succeed: First, civilian oversight of the police and security forces will deter abuse, hold abusers accountable, and help ensure the safety of those participating in the democratic uprising. Second, establishing an independent board of trustees for state television and radio would ensure neutrality in programming and representation of all political views. Third, a strong commitment by the army to act as a neutral custodian of the transition, serving the interests of the people and not the delegitimized regime, is critical.

Egyptians have paid a heavy price the past three decades and an even steeper one since this revolution started. Let's end Mubarak's rule the right way so we can start building a better future.

Hossam Bahgat and Soha Abdelaty are, respectively, executive director and deputy director of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (www.eipr.org)

Egypt's two futures: Brutality and false reforms, or democracy

Editorial
The Washington Post
Friday, February 4, 2011; 8:24 PM

OVER THE past few days the world has seen a vivid portrait of the two sides in Egypt's crisis. There has been the orchestrated brutality and cynical facade of compromise presented by the regime of Hosni Mubarak, who while clinging to his office until September is trying to destroy the opposition and ensure the perpetuation of 50 years of autocracy. In Cairo's Tahrir Square and in other plazas around the country is the alternative: millions of mostly secular and middle-class citizens, led by the young, who seek genuine democracy and whose regular chant is "we are peaceful."

What the week's events have shown is that Egypt is not facing a simple choice between the departure of Mr. Mubarak in September and his immediate resignation. In fact the two sides offer very different futures for Egypt. One is a continuation of the present regime, with minimal concessions to opponents. The other is a new, more liberal Egypt, one that will have a chance to modernize its economy and its political system and to introduce a desperately needed era of reform in the Arab Middle East.

Mr. Mubarak now claims that he will oversee a political transition. But the reality is this: Since Wednesday, at least 11 people have been killed in Cairo clashes started by gangs of regime thugs, many of whom carried ID cards from the police or the ruling party. Western journalists have been attacked or detained, and many opposition activists have been arrested by military police.

Mr. Mubarak and his newly appointed vice president and prime minister, meanwhile, have waged a disinformation campaign aimed at splitting the opposition and deterring the United States and other governments from taking sides. They profess surprise at the violence their forces orchestrated; call on the demonstrators to go home; and threaten "chaos" if Mr. Mubarak is forced to leave before September. The shallowness of their promises is revealed in their claims that talks with the opposition can be wrapped up in days and constitutional changes limited to two articles about the president's election and term.

In fact, as Egyptian activists Hossam Bahgat and Soha Abdelaty make clear on the opposite page, considerably more reform is needed for a democratic election, including the lifting of the emergency law and restrictions on political parties, the reinstatement of independent election monitoring by judges, and the opening of state media to opposition voices. The failure of Mr. Mubarak and his aides to mention such steps reveals their real ambition, which is to install a successor in another rigged process.

Despite the brutality the opposition has suffered, its platform remains moderate. Its leaders seek the replacement of Mr. Mubarak with a transitional administration that could include figures from the current regime. Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood so far has taken a back seat in the movement, and there are no demands to rupture relations with Israel, much less the United States.

Friday's massive demonstrations showed that this democratic movement is not yielding to the regime's ruthlessness. It is willing to share power with the army and the regime but not to accept a mix of phony reforms and repression aimed at preventing the emergence of a democracy. The United States has been trying to avoid taking sides in this standoff. On Friday, President Obama repeated his position that a political transition "must begin now" but that it was up to Egyptians; he did not rule out Mr. Mubarak leading it. But there is really only one side that represents U.S. values and interests - and it can be found in Tahrir Square.

Clinton urges Egyptians to support government-led reform process

By Mary Beth Sheridan and Michael Birnbaum
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, February 5, 2011; 1:42 PM

MUNICH - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton urged Egyptian demonstrators Saturday to support their military-backed government's plan to lead a transition to democracy, warning that the alternative could be a power vacuum filled by radicals.

Clinton's remarks came as opposition figures began tentative talks with Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman, to explore the possibility that he would manage a transition to democracy and assume many of the powers held by President Hosni Mubarak. Crowds of protesters turned out in Cairo on Saturday for the 12th consecutive day of anti-Mubarak demonstrations.

Clinton balanced her cautious message with a broader appeal to Arab leaders to usher in democratic reforms, warning that their autocratic systems were "untenable" and would eventually face challenges like the one in Egypt.

After drawing little attention Friday, the turmoil in Egypt and other Arab countries became a leading topic of discussion Saturday at the Munich Security Conference, an annual gathering of senior European and U.S. officials and intellectuals that Clinton was attending.

Clinton told the conference that Washington is supporting a transition led by Egypt's government that should occur "as orderly but as expeditiously as possible."

If the transition is not deliberative, she warned, there are forces "that will try to derail or overtake the process, to pursue their own specific agenda - which is why I think it's important to support the transition process announced by the Egyptian government, headed now by Omar Suleiman."

Although Clinton did not identify the forces that could seize control of the transition, she was clearly referring to hard-line Islamists.

Addressing the conference via video link from New York, retired diplomat Frank G. Wisner, whom President Obama sent to Cairo last week as a special envoy, echoed Clinton's caution.

"The Egyptian constitution is quite clear," he said. "If the presidency is vacated, then the speaker of parliament takes over, and in a couple of months you have elections. Those elections would take place under the current dispositions. Those dispositions are currently unacceptable to those protesting in the streets of Cairo today."

Therefore, he said, changes are needed, adding, "The president must stay in office in order to steer those changes through.

"The best way we can make this change is with [the government] and inside it," Wisner said. "This is going to take time, but it has to be done with respect and engagement and not with an atmosphere of pressure and punishment."

The U.S. government has been urging the Egyptian government to move faster on a transition and has encouraged the opposition to start negotiations. But the process has been complicated by the apparently leaderless nature of the protests and the refusal by many demonstrators to deal with the government while Mubarak remains in power.

Clinton said those who want to participate in the political system must renounce violence, respect the rights of minorities and show tolerance. "Those who refuse to do so do not deserve a seat at the table," she said.

Clinton's message was echoed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron, who called for a peaceful transition and warned against rushing into elections.

"When you are in a process of change . . . matters cannot move quickly enough," Merkel said, comparing the upheaval in Egypt to the collapse of the communist East German government. But she added: "We have to see to it that we set up structures that are sustainable. . . . Elections at the beginning of a transformation process is probably the wrong approach."

Clinton made waves in mid-January with a speech in Qatar that warned Arab leaders they were facing a huge pool of young people frustrated by a lack of job prospects and an absence of liberties. Her tone was more urgent Saturday.

"The region is being battered by a perfect storm of powerful trends," she said. "A growing majority of its people are under the age of 30. Many of these people cannot find work. At the same time, they are more connected with one another - and with events around them - because of technology. And this generation is rightly demanding that their governments become more effective, more responsive and more open."

At the same time, Clinton said, "the transition to democracy is more likely to be peaceful and permanent when it involves both the government in power and a broad cross-section of the electorate."

sheridanm@washpost.com birnbaumm@washpost.com

Leadership of Egypt's ruling party resigns

Sarah El Deeb, Associated Press 1 hr 10 mins ago

CAIRO – The top leadership body of Egypt's ruling party resigned Saturday, including the president's son, but the regime appeared to be digging in its heels, calculating that it can ride out street demonstrations and keep President Hosni Mubarak in office.

The ruling party leaders who resigned included the country's most powerful political figures — and its most unpopular among many Egyptians. The move may have been aimed at convincing protesters in the streets that the regime is sincere in implementing democratic reforms they demand.

But State TV, announcing the resignations, still identified head of state Mubarak as president of the ruling party in a sign he would remain in authority. And Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq said Saturday that stability was returning to the country, appearing confident that a deal on future reforms can be reached with the multiple opposition movements to defuse protests without the 82-year-old Mubarak necessarily leaving power immediately.

Protesters have refused to end their mass rallies in downtown Tahrir Square until Mubarak quits. Tens of thousands gathered Saturday in Tahrir, waving flags and chanting a day after some 100,000 massed there in an intensified demonstration labeled "the day of departure," in hopes it would be the day Mubarak leaves.

Their unprecedented 12-day movement has entered a delicate new phase. Organizers fear that without the pressure of protesters on the street, Mubarak's regime will enact only cosmetic reforms and try to preserve its grip on power. So they are reluctant to lift their demonstrations without the concrete gain of Mubarak's ouster and a transition mechanism that guarantees a real move to democracy afterward.

Mubarak has insisted he will remain in his post until the end of his term in his autumn. In the meantime, the government has sought to draw opposition parties and the youth groups involved in the protests into immediate negotiations on constitutional reforms so presidential elections can be held in September to replace Mubarak.

Protest organizers, wary of a trap, have refused until Mubarak goes. A key question will be whether they can maintain enthusiasm and continue to rally large numbers. Some in Tahrir greeted the new concession of ruling party resignations with with scorn.

Wael Khalil, a 45-year-old activist, said it would "reinforce their (protersers') resolve and increase their confidence because it shows that they are winning, and the regime is retreating inch by inch."

Among those on the six-member party Steering Committee that stepped down was the National Democratic Party's secretary-general, Safwat el-Sharif, and the president's son Gamal Mubarak, who has long been seen as his father's intended heir as president. The turmoil has crushed those ambitions, however, with Vice President Omar Suleiman promising in the past week that Gamal will not run for president in September.

A new Steering Committee was named, headed by Hossam Badrawy, who also replaced Gamal as head of a separate policies committee. The new body largely consists of young figures, one of the new appointees, Mohammed Kamal, told The Associated Press. "It's a good change. It reflects the mood of change that is sweeping the country," he said.

The move suggested that the military figures now dominating the regime — including Vice President Omar Suleiman and Prime Minister Shafiq — judged that dumping party veterans was the price for getting enough of the opposition to accept Mubarak's continuing in power.

At a press conference aired on state TV, Shafiq suggested the government hopes to convince enough factions to enter talks that the others will be forced to join in. Asked whether the Muslim Brotherhood, for example, will enter talks, Shafiq said, "Once they find the others are negotiation, for sure they will or they will be left alone ... The level of aspirations is going down day by day."

He noted that the protesters had changed their slogan from "day of departure" to a "week of steadfastness," saying that this was "because they failed on Friday" in forcing out Mubarak. "All this leads to stability," he said.

Government officials, meanwhile, sought to depict that normalcy was returning to a capital that has been paralyzed for nearly two weeks by the crisis. State TV announced that banks and courts, closed for most of the turmoil, will reopen Sunday, the start of Egypt's work week, though daily bank withdrawals will be limited to $15,000 and the stock market will remain shut at least through Monday.

The government and military have promised not to try to clear protesters from Tahrir, and soldiers guarding the square continued to let people enter to join the growing rally.

But there were signs of tension Saturday. At one point, army tanks tried to brought out tanks to try to bulldoze away several burned out vehicles that protesters used in barricades during fighting this week with pro-regime attackers. The proteters say they want the gutted chassis in place in case of a new attack. Protesters clambered onto the vehicles and lay down in front of them to prevent soldiers from removing them, and only after heated arguments did the troops agree.

Also, there were reports for the first time of attempts by troops guarding the square's entrances to prevent those entering from bringing food for protesters, thousands of whom have camped out for days and need a constant flow of supplies.

Mohammad Radwan, 31, said soldiers harassed him as he brought in supplies of bread, cheese and lunch meat and tried to confiscate some of the food until he shouted them down. "They want to suffocate the people in Tahrir and this is the most obvious attack on them without actually attacking," he said.

Protesters vowed to hold out in the square. Elwan Abdul Rahman, a 26-year-old who arrived in Tahrir on Friday from southern Egypt dismissed the prime minister's comments. "He's laughing at the world, he's laughing at all of us," he said, pointing at the crowds and saying, "Do you think they're gonna go away tomorrow? ... People are here with their blood and their soul."

Shafiq's comments pointed to what could be the regime's strategy in the coming phase: isolate protests but let them go on in hopes they burn out from exhaustion while trying to keep the government Mubarak installed last week in place to direct the reform process. Shafiq and Vice President Omar Suleiman — both military men like Mubarak and regime stalwarts put in their posts last week — have taken the lead in trying to arrange reform negotiations.

Egypt's top ally the United States has pressed Mubarak, who has ruled for nearly three decades with an authoritarian hand, to launch a democratic transition immediately and step aside quickly. The administration has held behind-the-scenes talks with Egyptian officials on a variety of ways to do that, including a proposal that Mubarak step down now and hand power to Suleiman.

President Barack Obama stopped short of calling for Mubarak's immediate resignation, but said Friday that the Egyptian leader should think about his legacy and exit office in a way that ensures peace and democracy. "My hope is — is that he will end up making the right decision."

Friday saw the tentative contacts between the government, protest organizers and independent actors trying to convince the leadership on a graceful way out for Mubarak.

A self-declared group of Egypt's elite — called the "group of wise men" — has circulated ideas to try to break that deadlock. Among them is a proposal that Mubarak "deputize" his Vice President Suleiman with his powers and step down in everything but name, perhaps keeping the presidency title for the time being at least.

The "wise men," who are separate from the protesters on the ground, have met twice in recent days with Suleiman and Shafiq, said Amr el-Shobaki, a member of the group. Their proposals also call for the dissolving of the parliament monopolized by the ruling party and the end of emergency laws that give security forces near-unlimited powers.

"The stumbling point remains that of the president stepping down," el-Shobaki said.

The "wise men" are comprised of about a dozen prominent public figures and jurists, including former Cabinet minister and lawyer Ahmed Kamal Aboul-Magd, businessman Naguib Sawiris and political scientist academics like el-Shobaki. "We don't represent the youth on the ground. We keep in touch with them," said el-Shobaki.

Late Friday, a delegation from the protesters themselves meet with Shafiq to discuss ways out of the impasse, said Abdel-Rahman Youssef, a youth activist who participated in the meeting.

He underlined that the contacts were not negotiations. "It was a message to see how to resolve the crisis. The message is that they must recognize the legitimacy of the revolution and that president must leave one way or the other, either real or political departure," he told The Associated Press.

The protesters are looking into the proposal floated by the "wise men," said Youssef, who is part of the youth movement connected to Nobel Peace laureate and prominent reform advocate Mohamed ElBaradei.

"It could be a way out of the crisis," Youssef said. "But the problem is in the president...he is not getting it that he has become a burden on everybody, psychologically, civicly and militarily."

Israa Abdel-Fattah, a member of the April 6 group, another of the youth movements driving the demonstrations, said there is support for the wise men's proposal among protesters.

Youssef underlined that the 12-day-old protests will continue in Tahrir Square until Mubarak goes in an acceptable way.

"There is no force that can get the youth out of the square. Every means was used. Flexibility, violence, live ammunition, and even thugs, and the protesters are still steadfast," he said, referring to an assault by regime supporters on Wednesday that sparked 48 hours of heavy street fighting until protesters succeeded in driving off the attackers.

The protest organizers themselves are a mix of small movements who managed to draw broadbased support among a public disenchanted with Mubarak's rule. The majority are young secular leftists and liberals, who launched the wave of protests though an Internet campaign, but the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood also has built a prominent role.

Suleiman and Shafiq say they want negotiations with all the factions, promising their voices will be heard.

Protesters, however, distrust a process conducted by the current government, given the regime's overwhelming domination of the playing field, including a grip on security services and the media, a vast patronage system, a constitution that effectively enshrines its monopoly and a history of rigging elections.

ElBaradei has argued that the current leadership be replaced by a presidential council of several figures — including a military representative — to oversee the daunting process of loosening that grip, which he says will take a year.

___

AP correspondents Paul Schemm, Hadeel al-Shalchi and Lee Keath contributed to this report.

Mubarak's men key to US reform hopes in Egypt

Bradley Klapper, Associated Press 2 hrs 58 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Seeking reform in Egypt, the U.S. increasingly is counting on a small cadre of President Hosni Mubarak's closest advisers to guide a hoped-for transition from autocracy to democracy.

It's a plan that relies on long relationships with military men and bureaucrats who owe their professional success to Mubarak's iron rule. To the regret of some U.S. diplomats, it's also a plan that steers around the Muslim Brotherhood, the powerful Islamist political movement that almost surely would play a central role in any future popularly chosen government.

Not that Washington has much choice.

Mubarak has so smothered potential political opposition that there is no clear alternative for the U.S. as a bargaining partner, even if dealing with aging Mubarak stalwarts reduces U.S. credibility with Egyptians fed up with the Mubarak era.

The Obama administration's telephone diplomacy this past week was indicative of the American strategy to keep Egypt from tearing itself apart.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden spoke to Omar Suleiman, Egypt's 74-year-old intelligence chief who became vice president last week. Defense Secretary Robert Gates chatted with his 85-year-old counterpart, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi. Joint Chiefs chairman Adm. Mike Mullen discussed the situation with Egypt's top military official, Lt. Gen. Sami Anan, 62. Another key figure is Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, a 69-year-old former Air Force chief.

U.S. diplomatic cables released by the WikiLeaks website encapsulate part of the problem with trusting these men to be the head ushers of democratic and economic change.

Beyond the generational split with young protesters disgruntled by years of harsh unemployment, inequality and political repression, the Mubarak men belong to a military elite whose wealth and power are inextricably linked to the 82-year-old president.

"Egypt's military is in decline," a 2008 U.S. cable says, summarizing a series of conversations with academics and analysts. The memo cites a professor in Egypt as saying "the sole criteria for promotion is loyalty and the ... leadership does not hesitate to fire officers it perceives as being `too competent' and who therefore potentially pose a threat to the regime."

Yet the military's authority remains strong and its interests in Egypt vast. Mubarak built an army of almost a half-million men that holds large stakes in the water, olive oil, cement, construction, hotel and gasoline industries.

A diplomatic cable also describes large land holdings of the military along the Nile Delta and the Red Sea, and suggests that the top brass would not be served by important change toward democracy and freer markets.

Most analysts agree that the military "generally opposes economic reforms," according to the U.S. diplomatic correspondence.

The exchanges describe an Egypt ripe for political unrest. A 2007 note from the U.S. ambassador at time, Francis J. Ricciardone, said Mubarak's "reluctance to lead more boldly" was hurting his effectiveness.

Ricciardone singled out Egypt's elite 40,000-member counterterror police as he described a "culture of impunity." The ambassador noted that the Egyptian government shut down a human rights group that had helped the family of a detainee killed in 2003. The officers were exonerated of torture and murder charges.

The cables also provide glimpses of the difficult environment for Egypt's bloggers and journalists. During protests in Cairo this past week, pro-government mobs beat, threatened and intimidated reporters attempting to inform the world of the unfolding events in the country.

In one cable, an Egyptian blogger complained to the U.S. Embassy after YouTube and Google removed videos from his blog apparently showing a Bedouin shot by Egyptian police and thrown on a garbage dump, and another one of a woman being tortured in a police station.

The cables contain mixed assessments of some of those being counted on to lead Egypt's transition after six decades when the country's four presidents all came from the officer corps.

Suleiman, referred to as the "Mubarak consigliere," comes out better than others. He is described as disappointed as far back as 2007 that he had yet to be named vice president. Yet on first glance, he seems an ideal candidate to guide Egypt through an unstable period.

At a time when Mubarak's son Gamal was being promoted as a future president, a U.S. cable says Suleiman "would at the least have to figure in any succession scenario."

"He could be attractive to the ruling apparatus and the public at large as a reliable figure unlikely to harbor ambitions for another multi-decade presidency," according to the cable.

But it is unclear what that will mean now as thousands of Egyptians demand Mubarak's immediate resignation.

There's little indication Suleiman will show his longtime boss the door, even if Obama administration officials are discussing options that include having Mubarak step aside now for a transitional government headed by Suleiman.

"His loyalty to Mubarak seems rock-solid," a cable written four years ago concludes.

Under one proposal, Mubarak would hand his powers to his vice president, though not his title immediately, to give the ruler a graceful exit.

Suleiman has offered negotiations with all political forces, including protest leaders and the regime's top foe, the Muslim Brotherhood. He's spoken of independent supervision of elections, loosening restrictions on who can run for president and term limits for leaders.

He has some support.

Opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei, a former U.N. atomic energy chief and Nobel peace laureate, said he respects Suleiman as a possible negotiating partner. Some protesters have backed the idea of Suleiman playing a leading role in the transition; others see him too much of a Mubarak government figure and want him out, along with the president.

Then there's Tantawi, known among younger servicemen as "Mubarak's poodle," according to one informant. His unbending support for Mubarak is described in worse terms.

"`This incompetent defense minister'" who reached his position only because of unwavering loyalty to Mubarak is `running the military into the ground,'" a U.S. diplomat wrote, relaying the assessment of an unidentified professor in Egypt.

Tantawi reached out to the demonstrators Friday by visiting the square that has been the rallying point for Cairo's protests. He held friendly but heated discussions, telling people that most of their demands have been met and they should go home. "The people and the army are one hand!" they chanted during Tantawi's brief stop.

Anan is largely respected among U.S. officials. The cables spare him the harsh criticism doled out to Tantawi, who is lambasted in various memos as the chief impediment to modernizing Egypt's military.

But the fear of American officials illustrated throughout the notes — and offered by the Mubarak government as its main excuse for resisting democracy — is the threat posed by the Muslim Brotherhood.

U.S. officials say there have been no contacts with the hardline Islamist movement. It has formed the most organized opposition to Mubarak's three-decade autocracy but opposes much of the U.S. agenda in the region, such as Arab-Israeli peace efforts.

"The specter of an MB presidency haunts secular Egyptians," a cable noted. Still, it said such a development was "highly unlikely" and that the military wouldn't support an extremist takeover.

But avoiding talks with the group could be a mistake for the U.S., if it means a missed opportunity for some influence with a group that could become a dominant force in Egypt's future.

The United States has confirmed discussions with ElBaradei, who has "captured the imagination of some section of the secular elite that wants democracy but is wary of the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood," according to a February 2010 cable.

ElBaradei's biggest challenge would be mustering credibility among Egyptians on the streets, it predicted. The jury is still out on that question, even if the Muslim Brotherhood has expressed support for ElBaradei as an acceptable point-man for leading the pro-democracy movement. The military's view of him hasn't really been made clear.

Ultimately, the protests haven't made Egypt's post-Mubarak future any clearer. What's obvious now is that neither Mubarak will run in September elections. But no one knows how the military will react to possibly months more of instability.

"In a messier succession scenario," a 2008 cable noted, "it becomes more difficult to predict the military's actions."

"While midlevel officers do not necessarily share their superiors' fealty to the regime," it is "unlikely that these officers could independently install a new leader."

They military won't have to act alone, and no officials are warning of a military coup. But the military elite's reticence for change could prove a hindrance to democratic transformation.

U.S. officials consistently have criticized the government's response to the crisis, and officials say Suleiman's outreach efforts have been too narrow and not credible enough to gain widespread support and usher in real democracy.

As for Mubarak, who said in an ABC interview Thursday that Egypt would slip into chaos if he didn't serve out his remaining seven months, the cables suggest he never really had a succession plan — long "the elephant in the room of Egyptian politics."

"Mubarak himself seems to be trusting to God and the inertia of the military and civilian security services to ensure an orderly transition," a 2007 cable said.

___

Associated Press writer Douglas Birch contributed to this report.

Shakeup in Leadership of Egypt's Ruling Party

Feb. 5, 2011

Mubarak Reportedly Leaves NDP Role; Mubarak's Son, Party Chief Also Exit; U.S. Signals Support for VP to Head Transition

(CBS/AP) Last Updated 12:33 p.m. ET

CAIRO - The leadership of Egypt's ruling party has resigned is what is seen as a major concession to try to appease protesters who have demonstrated against the regime of President Hosni Mubarak.

State TV reports that the six-member Steering Committee of the General Secretariat stepped down and was replaced. Among those who have resigned: the son of President Mubarak, Gamal Mubarak, and the National Democratic Party's secretary-general, Safwat el-Sharif.

The council was the party's highest decision-making body, and el-Sharif and other outgoing members were some of the most powerful (and to many Egyptians, unpopular) political figures in the regime.

El-Sharif was replaced by Hossam Badrawi, member of the liberal wing of the party who had been sidelined within the NDP ranks in recent years because of his sharp criticisms of some policies.

Reuters and Al Araibya television have reported that President Mubarak himself had resigned from a leadership position in the NDP as well, but those reports have not yet been confirmed.

However, Mubarak still continues as the nation's president.

This comes as U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking today at an international security conference in Munich, signaled that U.S. support has swung behind a transition headed by the recently-named vice president, Omar Suleiman.

"There are forces at work in any society, particularly one that is facing these kind of challenges, that will try to derail or overtake the process to pursue their own agenda, which is why I think it's important to follow the transition process announced by the Egyptian government, actually headed by vice-president Omar Suleiman," Clinton said.

Complete Coverage: Anger in the Arab World

Clinton went on to say the transition should be transparent and inclusive, while setting out "concrete steps", moving towards orderly elections in September. She listed with approval the steps the Egyptian government had taken so far.

"President Mubarak has announced he will not stand for re-election, nor will his son," Clinton said. "He has given a clear message to his government to lead and support this process of transition. That is what the government has said it is trying to do, that is what we are supporting, and hope to see it move as orderly but as expeditiously as possible under the circumstances."

In a statement from the White House, spokesman Tommy Vietor said that Deputy National Security Advisor Denis McDonough convened a meeting on Egypt this morning, and that President Obama will be briefed on the situation by his senior national security staff this afternoon.

The new appointments to the NDP's leadership were largely young figures, one of the replacements, Mohammed Kamal, told The Associated Press. "It's a good change. It reflects the mood of change that is sweeping the country," he said.

Gamal Mubarak, who was a member of the Steering Committee, was widely seen as being groomed by his father Hosni Mubarak to succeed him as president. But Vice President Omar Suleiman promised earlier in the week that Gamal would not run for president in elections due in September.

The younger Mubarak was also head of the party's powerful policies committee, where for the past decade he led a campaign of economic liberalization. State TV said Gamal was also removed from that post and replaced by Badrawi.

The announcement was greeted with scorn by some of the tens of thousands of protesters gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square. Wael Khalil, a 45-year-old activist, said it would "reinforce their (protesters') resolve and increase their confidence because it shows that they are winning, and the regime is retreating inch by inch."

Plans calls for having free and open elections in September. Also appears the U.S. and other Egyptian officials are trying to find a way to ease Mubarak out of office.

There were reports earlier this morning that Suleiman and top military leaders were discussing way to limit President Hosni Mubarak's powers, as a way to ease him out of control, Egyptian and American officials told The New York Times. A transitional government headed by Suleiman would then negotiate with the opposition movement on devising and implementing democratic reforms.

Protest leaders have also met with the country's prime minister, but it is unclear what progress may have been made in those meetings.

Al Jazeera reported that Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq was prepared to listen to any and all demands made by the demonstrators, except for Mubarak's early departure.

Shafiq told state TV that Friday's 100,000-strong demonstration, referred to by protesters as a "Day fo Departure," failed to force Mubarak out. "We haven't been affected, and God willing next Friday we won't be affected," he said. "All this leads to stability."

On Saturday. The Associated Press reports Mubarak met with his top economic officials to discuss steps for getting the economy restarted. The Egyptian economy has suffered an estimated $3.1 billion in losses since the protests began.

Opposition leaders have called for another million-man protest for Sunday. In honor of those who have been killed during the 11 days of protests, it's being referred to as "Martyrs' Sunday."

The Egyptian military on Saturday came up against angry pro-democracy protesters in an attempt to persuade them to move burnt cars and human barricades from the streets leading to Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo, where thousands continued to call for President Hosni Mubarak's departure.

The protesters set up human barricades around Tahrir, or Liberation, Square to prevent pro-Mubarak supporters from disrupting their pro-democracy demonstrations.

Fierce clashes between pro- and anti-Mubarak supporters earlier in the week left at least 11 killed and hundreds injured.

It Pays Well to Be Egypt’s Dictator

By editor Feb 4, 2011, 1:07 PM Author's Website

ABC reports that according to experts estimate, the Mubarak Family may have as much as $70 billion stashed away.

[Hosni Mubarak and his family] had a very lavish lifestyle with many homes around the country,” said [Aladdin Elaasar, author of "The Last Pharaoh: Mubarak and the Uncertain Future of Egypt in the Obama Age], who estimates the family’s wealth is between $50 billion to $70 billion.
….
The Mubarak family [which made most of its fortune largely from military contracts during Hosni's days as an air force officer. He eventually diversified his investments through his family when he became president in 1981] owns properties in London, Paris, Madrid, Dubai, Washington, D.C., New York and Frankfurt, according to a report from IHS Global Insight.
…
Christopher Davidson, [a professor of Middle East Politics at Durham University in England] said the family’s net worth, however — $17 billion for Mubarak, $10 billion for his second son, Gamal, and $40 billion for the family — are really just estimates.

“Of course, by definition, bank accounts in Switzerland are a secret so we cannot get a full picture,” said Davidson.

Don’t see how the Mubaraks didn’t make The Forbes 400 list of the richest people in the world. After all, the price of admission is “only” $1 billion. By the way, gross national income is $2,070 per family in Egypt with about 20% of the population living below the poverty line. But as I said, it pays mighty well to be the country’s dictator.

Anti-government protests in Egypt