Egypt: A pivotal moment

Mohamed ElBaradei must be free to give political leadership

Editorial
The Guardian, Saturday 29 January 2011

It was the day on which Egyptians lost their fear: of green armoured personnel carriers, which swayed and toppled before the unstoppable tide of human wrath; of plainclothes thugs who had plagued their lives; of the ruling party's headquarters, from where elections were rigged and parliamentary seats managed – it too went up in flames; of military curfews; of the entire apparatus of a regime which had crushed all political dissent for nearly three decades. "Even if the dogs could speak," one of the hundreds of thousands who flocked the streets told our reporter, "they would tell you that they are fed up with [Hosni] Mubarak. We have to have change." This was a transformative day. The Arab world's largest power had just lost control of the streets of Cairo, Alexandria, Giza, Suez. The regime shut down the internet and unplugged the mobile phone network, a desperate move to stop the protests. It only propelled thousands more on to the streets. As darkness fell, shots were heard in Cairo and tanks were seen in Suez. And still the roar of protest continued.

The revolution threatens not only Hosni Mubarak's regime but the strategy the US and Britain have constructed in the Middle East. The hesitancy with which President Mubarak reacted last night was matched only by the perceptible shift in the emphasis of the statements by the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton. Only two days ago she said the US assessment was that the Egyptian government was stable and was looking for ways to respond to the legitimate interests of the Egyptian people. The primary importance of keeping a key Arab ally and Middle East interlocutor stable was also emphasised yesterday by Tony Blair, the Quartet's envoy. Faced with the conflicting needs to keep an Arab partner of Israel afloat and to respond to demands for democratic reform, the US would choose the first every time. After yesterday's events, Ms Clinton's calls to lift internet controls and respond to the grievances of Egyptians became more strident. But it was too little, too late. Ms Clinton's initial support for the Mubarak regime had not been lost on Egyptians battling for their freedoms.

This is not to say that a post-Mubarak regime would tear up Egypt's peace treaty with Israel or in the short term be any less cordial in its official relations with its neighbour. But in the longer term a government which reflected the popular will of the people of Egypt would surely open the country's land border with Gaza and not block unity talks between Fatah and Hamas. If Mubarak's regime fell, the Palestinian Authority would also lose a vital backer and ally. The domino that toppled Egypt could also topple less secure regimes like Jordan and Yemen, in which smaller but no less significant demonstrations were taking place yesterday.

As Mr Mubarak last night imposed a nationwide curfew, the biggest question hung over what role, if any, the army would play. Compared to the interior ministry, it is popular. Protesters initially cheered the arrival of troops on the streets, in the hope that they would be protected from the police. This is the world's 10th largest army, from which all four Egyptian presidents since the fall of the monarchy have come. It has formed the core of the elite that has sustained the president's rule. Will it enforce an increasingly bloody security crackdown or act as an invaluable mediator between the people and a regime they are demanding must go? It is impossible to predict.

What the president has to do now is to announce that he will release the people he has locked up. Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the UN nuclear watchdog, who was briefly detained yesterday, must be free to give political leadership. Mr Mubarak must rule out a sixth term as president, and set up a council to rewrite the constitution. Even those measures might not be sufficient to stop the crowds. This revolt has a momentum of its own.

Protesters across US offer support to Egyptians

Caryn Rousseau, Associated Press Sat Jan 29, 6:34 pm ET

CHICAGO – Thousands of people in Egypt who flooded streets in riots calling for President Hosni Mubarak to step down were joined Saturday by relatives and supporters at protests in major American cities.

"Mubarak will go. If not today, then tomorrow," Magdy Al-Abady, 39, of Chicago, said during a demonstration downtown in front of the Egyptian consulate's office. The genomics researcher, with an Egyptian flag draped over his shoulders, said his brother and parents were protesting in Egypt and he was speaking often with his brother.

Protesters also gathered outside the United Nations complex in New York City, filled the street in front of the Egyptian embassy in Washington and marched through downtown San Francisco to show solidarity with the uprising. Other cities including Seattle and Los Angeles also saw demonstrations.

In Chicago, picketers marched and chanted, "Hey Mubarak you will see, all Egyptians will be free." They held signs that said "Victory to the Egyptian people" and "Freedom and Justice for all Egyptians."

Al-Abady said he wants President Barack Obama to support the Egyptian people.

"He must say very clearly that he does not support Mubarak," Al-Abady said. "Mubarak is not Egypt. The Egyptians are not Mubarak."

The crowd in New York called for the international community to support the popular uprising and abandon Mubarak.

Dahlia Ashour, a native of the Egyptian capital of Cairo who still has family in Egypt, said she was disappointed Obama hadn't made a forceful statement in support of the protesters. "He should be standing by the people, not by the regime," she said.

Obama has issued a plea for restraint in Egypt and called on Mubarak to take steps to democratize his government and refrain from using violence against his people.

Ahmed Soliman, of Manhattan, said Egypt deserves a leader who is "completely democratic." He said the riots and massive demonstrations are the result of genuine popular anger, not the work of a scheming opposition party.

"This is coming from the people," he said. "I've been waiting for this to happen. I left Egypt 18 years ago, and I have been dreaming of this day since then."

In downtown Seattle, protesters carried hand-lettered signs, saying "We'll shout until he's out" and "Down, Down Mubarak."

Dozens gathered in Harvard Square in Cambridge, Mass., to peacefully protest, waving Egyptian flags, holding signs and chanting for Mubarak to step down as they marched toward Boston.

In San Francisco, a crowd crammed into a small plaza waving Egyptian flags and raising chants in English and Arabic against Mubarak. Demonstrators said they were not placated by Mubarak's decision Saturday to name his intelligence chief as his first-ever vice president.

"We want to say to the U.S. administration: Stop supporting terror — terror and dictatorship," said Omar Ali, 21, of San Francisco, referring to the Mubarak regime. "Either you stand for democracy or not."

College students in Los Angeles used Facebook to organize a demonstration outside the federal building in Westwood, asking for Mubarak to be ousted and a new interim government.

In Chicago, 35-year-old student and mother Basma Hassan waved the Egyptian flag and said she wants the Egyptian people to know they have support in the U.S.

"We feel their pain," she said. "We don't want anyone to think we betrayed them."

___

Associated Press reporters Marcus R. Wohlsen in San Francisco, Christopher Weber in Los Angeles and Jessica Gresko in Washington contributed to this report. AP staff photographer Ted S. Warren contributed from Seattle.

More Egyptian protesters demand that White House condemn Mubarak

By Leila Fadel
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, January 29, 2011; 8:30 PM

CAIRO - In a dusty alleyway in downtown Cairo, Gamal Mohammed Manshawi held out a dirty plastic bag Saturday afternoon. Inside were smashed gas canisters and the casings of rubber bullets that he said Egyptian police had fired at anti-government demonstrators.

"You see," the 50-year-old lawyer said, displaying the items. On the bottom of each were the words "Made in the USA."

"They are attacking us with American weapons," he yelled as men gathered around him.

To many protesters in the streets of Cairo, the Obama administration has offered only tepid criticism of a regime that receives billions of dollars in U.S. aid.

The United States appears to be walking a fine line between a now-weakened leader and the pro-democracy protesters who could overthrow him. The prospect of President Hosni Mubarak being ousted by a movement that feels ignored by the United States raises questions about future relations between Washington and a strategic ally in a volatile region.

Many in the movement are now denouncing the United States for supporting Mubarak, saying the price has been their freedom.

"Tell America that we get to choose our president," Manshawi said. "We choose him, not them."

Many protesters said they were stirred by the death of Khaled Said, an activist who was beaten to death by security forces last year. He became a symbol of abuse at the hands of the security forces under Mubarak.

"We want a government elected by the people, not a government dictated to the people," said Mohammed Ramadan, 40, an accountant who was demonstrating along the Nile on Saturday, as he has for the past five days.

The police retreated Saturday, pushed back by waves of demonstrators. The Egyptian army was deployed to the streets, a victory in the eyes of the people here, and the calls for Mubarak's ouster grew stronger.

U.S. officials "speak about their own interest, not ours," said Ahmed Abu Dunia, who said he planned to demonstrate every day until Mubarak is gone. "The Egyptians love Egypt."

When protesters first took to the streets Tuesday, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said that "our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable." On Saturday, several protesters noted that she did not address the government's human rights record or the attacks by police to break up the gatherings.

The administration's remarks have grown more forceful. On Friday, President Obama said he had asked Mubarak to live up to promises to reform.

But protesters who were demanding their rights said that was not enough.

"We didn't expect much from the United States," said Abdel Nasser Awad, 40, who said he was demonstrating for his son's future. "We are not people looking for war. We are looking for freedom."

He added that he hoped the international community, including the United States, would force Mubarak out soon so that chaos would not engulf the nation. On Saturday, looters flooded several neighborhoods across the city.

In Tahrir Square, where the largest protests in Cairo have taken place, people said they thought Mubarak's resignation might be near, not because of the United States but in spite of it. Many here said that if Obama turned his back on Mubarak, he would have to step down.

"We believe America is against us," said Emad Abdel Halim, 31. "Until now, Obama didn't talk to the Egyptian people. He didn't support the Egyptian people."

"Tell Obama to forget about Mubarak," said Islam Rashid, 26. "He is done."

Unrest tests Egyptian military and its crucial relationship with U.S.

By Howard Schneider and Greg Jaffe
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, January 29, 2011; 8:30 PM

Egypt's military, built with tens of billions of dollars in American technology and training, is facing its biggest test in decades and giving U.S. officials a look at whether their massive investment has built an institution of social cohesion or one ready to turn on opponents of the current government.

Built to fight a major tank war and maintain a degree of parity with neighboring Israel, the army is being deployed on a very different mission: keeping civil order in the country under the watch of U.S. officials who have appealed for restraint.

The arrival of tanks and troops in Cairo's streets seemed to calm a tense situation, suggesting that the Egyptian military will play a key role as the country navigates its way out of the current crisis. On Saturday, soldiers seemed largely to sympathize with the throngs of protesters.

The massive amounts of defense aid - which have made Egypt's military one of the more effective forces in the region and yielded a relatively stable and wealthy officer class - will probably give the United States some critical leverage, Middle East analysts said.

U.S. military aid to Egypt, which totaled $1.3 billion in 2010, has held steady in recent years, even as aid for economic development, health and education has been cut. Aid to Egyptian police and riot-control forces, which amounted to about $1 million last year, is minuscule by comparison.

"The military relationship has been sacrosanct," said Jon Alterman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It is an important relationship for both countries, but it is not a relationship of soul mates."

The Obama administration says it is having "robust" conversations with officials throughout the Egyptian government about the unrest. On Saturday, President Obama's National Security Council convened a special two-hour session to discuss the crisis.

But the administration has also said it might review aid to Egypt. Congressional officials have cautioned the Egyptian military and President Hosni Mubarak that they have a great deal to lose if violence is used to keep the government in power.

A misuse of force "could have very serious consequences," said Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.), who authored a law restricting aid to foreign governments that are guilty of human rights violations. "They run the risk if they overreact of cutting ties with a country they need."

The United States also has much to lose if American-made tanks, rifles and helicopters are used by Egypt's military to stop rioters. A major crackdown with U.S. arms would almost certainly alienate the Eygptian public and much of the Arab world.

Egypt's military, which is considered one of the country's foundational institutions, would probably play a critical role in managing a transition to a new government if Mubarak was forced from power.

Egyptian Lt. Gen. Sami Enan, the chief of staff of Egypt's army, was at the Pentagon late last week for scheduled talks on security assistance and upcoming joint training and exercises. The talks were led by Alexander Vershbow, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, who urged restraint in dealing with the unrest, a senior defense official said.

So far, however, top Pentagon officials, including Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Adm. Mike Mullen,chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, haven't weighed in with their Egyptian counterparts - a sign that most senior U.S. leaders think an aggressive crackdown is unlikely.

Beyond the billions of dollars in military equipment delivered to Egypt, the U.S. government has spent tens of millions of dollars in the past decade bringing Egyptian military officers to the United States for training and education.

Throughout the Iraq war, the United States has relied heavily on the use of Egypt's Suez Canal to resupply U.S. forces. As ships pass through the canal, Egyptian forces secure the banks on either side. Most of Europe's oil supply moves through the canal as well.

Egypt's strategic importance is also magnified by its peace treaty with Israel, which makes it a key player in any future resolution of the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

For its part, Egypt has benefited from access to such equipment as the M1 tank and the F-16 fighter. Egypt does not receive versions as advanced as those sold to Israel, but these are potent weapons for a country whose military concerns include such unlikely threats as a desert incursion by Libya.

Egypt has also had the benefit of extensive U.S. training, and the development of defense-related businesses has helped enrich top officers and made the officer corps a pillar of the Egyptian middle and upper-middle class.

But the relationship between the two militaries has not been trouble-free. Documents released by the Web site WikiLeaks reflect sharp exchanges in the past year between U.S. and Egyptian officials over issues that include apparent violations of military-use agreements. U.S. officials, for example, were upset about a visit by Chinese officers to an F-16 base, and they demanded reassurances that U.S. technology was being kept secure.

One State Department cable released by WikiLeaks describes a meeting in which Maj. Gen. Mohammad al-Assar, assistant to Egypt's defense minister, warned U.S. officials not to put limits on U.S.-made aircraft and tanks in Egypt.

According to the cable, dated in February 2010, Assar "noted that the Egyptian military preferred to purchase its weapons and armaments from the United States, but that Egypt's national security was a red line and they could go elsewhere if they had to."

schneiderh@washpost.com jaffeg@washpost.com

Ex-officials urge Obama to suspend aid to Egypt

Laura Rozen
Politico
January 29, 2011

A bipartisan group of former U.S. officials and foreign policy scholars is urging the Obama administration to suspend all economic and military aid to Egypt until the government agrees to carry out early elections and to suspend Egypt’s draconian state of emergency, which has been in place for decades.

“We are paying the price for the fact that the administration has been at least of two minds on this stuff, and we should have seen it coming,” said Robert Kagan, co-chair of the bipartisan Egypt working group, regarding what many analysts now say is the inevitable end of Hosni Mubarak's thirty year reign as Egypt's president.

Though the Obama administration has tried to look like it’s not picking sides in urging restraint from violence amid five days of Egyptian unrest calling for Mubarak to step down, “the U.S. can’t be seen as neutral when it’s giving a billion and a half dollars” to prop up the Mubarak regime, Kagan said.

“Only free and fair elections provide the prospect for a peaceful transfer of power to a government recognized as legitimate by the Egyptian people,” the Egypt working group called in a statement Saturday. Other members include co-chair and former U.S. official Michele Dunne of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, former Bush NSC official Elliott Abrams, Human Rights Watch's Tom Malinowski, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Robert Satloff, and the Center for American Progress's Brian Katulis.

The group pressed the Obama administration Saturday to call for free and fair presidential and parliamentary elections in Egypt as soon as possible; for the amending of Egypt’s constitution to allow currently banned opposition candidates to run; and to immediately lift the state of emergency, release political prisoners and allow for freedom of the media and assembly.

It also said that the U.S. administration should declare that Mubarak has agreed not to run in the next elections.

“I think Mubarak has a week at most left in office,” Andrew Albertson, formerly with the Project on Middle East Democracy and the working group, told POLITICO Saturday. “He’s ultimately done. Either he flees fast, or there’s a transition to [newly appointed Vice President Omar] Suleiman, or the protests continue. Meanwhile, people are becoming incredibly angry with the U.S.," which is perceived, Albertson said, to be propping up Mubarak.

“Given the situation we are now finding ourselves in, President Obama needs to say, 'Hosni Mubarak should go,'” Albertson continued. “That's what's needed to save the [U.S.] relationship with the Egyptian people.”

Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk, not a member of the working group, also argued Saturday that Obama would soon have to tell Mubarak to go, ideally after a transition plan has been worked out.

"At this point, facing by far the biggest foreign policy crisis of his presidency, Obama cannot afford to backtrack," Indyk, vice president for foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution, wrote on MSNBC.com Saturday. "He will soon have to decide whether to tell Mubarak that the United States no longer supports him and that it's time for him to go."

Washington Egypt hands suggested there was tension inside the Obama administration -- which met for three hours Saturday on the Egypt crisis -- between those advocating the U.S. maintain a “cautious” policy of hedging its bets for now that Mubarak might stay on, and those who see that his departure is inevitable. They also said that some members of the administration were influenced by Israel’s concern at losing a reliable peace partner.

“There’s no fight,” one U.S. official involved in the discussions said Saturday. But "there’s a lot at stake.”

The GOP split on Egypt

January 28, 2011
Politico

The Bush wing of the GOP has been cheerleading the Egyptian protests, and criticizing Obama for not pushing Bush's "Freedom Agenda" in public calls for democracy in Egypt.

There is, though, another wing -- as Rep. Thaddeus McCotter reminds us this evening:

“The Egyptian demonstrations are not the equivalent of Iran's 2009 Green Revolution. The Egyptian demonstrations are the reprise of Iran's 1979 radical revolution.

“Thus, America must stand with her ally Egypt to preserve an imperfect government capable of reform; and prevent a tyrannical government capable of harm.

“For if Egypt is radicalized, all of the reforms sought by the Egyptian people and supported by the United States with them - including consensual and constitutional government; free elections; open and unbridled media; and Egyptian control of their natural resources - will be lost. Nascent democratic movements in the region will be co-opted and radicalized. The world's free and open access to the Suez Canal's vital commercial shipping lanes will be choked. And the Sinai Accord between Egypt and Israel - which must be protected as the foundation and principal example for Mideast peace - will be shredded.

“Though many will be tempted to superficially interpret the Egyptian demonstrations as an uprising for populist democracy, they must recall how such similar initial views of the 1979 Iranian Revolution were belied by the mullahs' radical jackbooted murderers, who remain bent upon grasping regional hegemony and nuclear weaponry.

“In this crisis, the American people deserve candor and action from President Obama, and President Hosni Mubarak and General Tantwai.

“This is not a nostalgic "anti-colonial uprising" from within, of all places, the land of Nassar. Right now, freedom's radicalized enemies are subverting Egypt and other our allies.

“Inexcusably, this crisis has been hastened and exacerbated by the U.S. Administration's refusal to whole-heartedly embrace Iran's truly democratic 2009 Green Revolution. Make no mistake: strategically and cynically, freedom's radicalized enemy is exploiting a real religion to undermine liberty and true reform just as Soviet communism posed as a secular creed to obtain the same illegitimate ends.

“If we fail to meet today's enemy on the same determined, principled terms, we will too late awake in a nightmare world. But, if today's enemy is steadfastly met and bested, liberty and the rule of law will be unleashed for millions throughout the world.

“This is the crisis; such are the stakes; and I stand ready to assist President Obama in the pursuit of a policy that defends our invaluable ally; and advances Egyptians' inalienable, peaceful aspirations.”

Obama inches away from Mubarak

By: Ben Smith and Laura Rozen
POLITICO
January 29, 2011 05:30 PM EST

The Obama administration Saturday continued inching away from the besieged government of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak as observers in Washington and Cairo began to conclude that the autocrat has little chance of restoring his authority.

Key American officials spent Saturday morning in a two-hour meeting and another hour briefing President Barack Obama that afternoon.

Obama “reiterated our focus on opposing violence and calling for restraint; supporting universal rights and supporting concrete steps that advance political reform within Egypt,” according to a White House description of the later meeting.

But in terms of officials words on the spiraling crisis — one that holds enormous stakes for U.S. foreign policy — administration officials spoke only in a Twittered whisper, allowing Obama’s Friday night call on Mubarak to move swiftly toward political reform to set the tone.

“The people of Egypt no longer accept the status quo. They are looking to their government for a meaningful process to foster real reform,” State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley wrote Saturday morning. “The Egyptian government can’t reshuffle the deck and then stand pat. President Mubarak’s words pledging reform must be followed by action.”

Obama’s pressure on Mubarak and the fact that defenses of Mubarak and the “stability” he brings the region from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden earlier in the week haven’t been repeated, have led many observers to conclude that the administration is readying for the end of the Mubarak era.

Foreign policy scholar Robert Kagan, who co-chairs the bipartisan Egypt working group that has been urging the administration to prepare for the post-Mubarak era, said he welcomed Obama’s comments, which came after the president spoke with Mubarak Friday night.

“They’re not as on the fence as people think,” Kagan, of the Brookings Institution, said by e-mail Saturday, referring to the U.S. administration. “I think the administration knows there has to be some kind of transition soon.”

That transition appears decreasingly likely to be Mubarak’s son Gamal, whom the BBC reported had arrived with his brother in the United Kingdom, a report Egyptian state television denied. (A State Department official said Saturday he did not know whether the report was true, but noted that similar rumors have been flying for days.) And Mubarak struggled to signal change Saturday without giving into protesters’ demands that he step down, appointing Egyptian intelligence chief Gen. Omar Suleiman as his vice president.

The appointment of the veteran Egyptian security official and Mubarak confidant who has dealt extensively with Washington on the peace process, counter-terrorism, and other security matters, came hours after Mubarak announced overnight that he would dissolve his cabinet and implement political and economic reforms.

The appointment of Suleiman, a Mubarak confidant and foe of Islamic radicals who has a strong working rapport with Washington as well as Israel and other Middle East capitals, could suggest a potential transition figure and bulwark against instability as Mubarak’s exit is envisioned, from Washington’s perspective. But Egyptian protesters are unlikely to be appeased by the appointment, Washington Egypt experts said, given his close association with the Mubarak regime and the human rights abuses and torture perpetrated by Egypt’s security apparatus.

“I doubt that Suleiman will be acceptable as vice president, and therefore heir apparent to the presidency, to the protestors,” said the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Michele Dunne, a former U.S. official who co-chairs the Egypt working group with Kagan. “He is closely linked to Mubarak and, as head of intelligence, linked to human rights abuses over the years.”

“The message [of Suleiman’s appointment] is intended to be, even if Mubarak goes, the system remains,” said Jon Alterman, an Egypt expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

On the ground, looters and criminals appeared at times to be filling the vacuum that police, beaten back by protesters, had left. The Associated Press reported that 74 people have died since the anti-government protests began five days ago. The Egyptian Army fanned out across Cairo to guard government buildings and historical sites like the Egyptian Museum, where looters ripped the heads off two mummies and damaged a handful of small artifacts before being caught by soldiers, according to the country’s antiquities chief.

And even as the chaos raged, the Washington consensus that Mubarak’s days are numbered was hardening.

“It’s hard to imagine Mubarak is president in a year,” said Alterman.

“This is the E-N-D,” Council on Foreign Relations Egypt specialist Steven Cook wrote Saturday. “Unless the military is willing to enforce martial law/spill blood, it’s hard to see how Hosni and Omar … hang [on].”

A transition, though, could be unstable and uncertain, and a key American strategic relationship remains in flux, with the path forward utterly unclear.

One top dissident, international diplomat and nuclear expert Mohamed El Baradei, said he found Obama’s remarks “disappointing” — an early mark that the next Egyptian regime may have political reasons to position itself against the U.S. where Mubarak did not.

“The only way out for Mubarak is to allow free and fair, competitive elections, including inviting international monitors to come in,” said Kagan. “And right away, because they have to monitor months of campaigning leading up to the elections.”

“If Mubarak announced this right away, it could prevent him from being toppled,” Kagan said. “It is possible that Egyptians would still want Mubarak out even if he made these concessions, but I think it could work.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Report: Egyptian police using expired U.S. tear gas

03:48 PM
USA TODAY

A cloud of tear gas englufed a demonstrator in central Cairo earlier today.
CAPTION
By Marco Longari, AFP/Getty Images
Egyptian police have used expired, U.S.-made tear gas on demonstrators in Cairo, the Al-Masry Al-Youm newspaper reports.

It's not clear how that might affect people differently from unexpired gas. The paper writes: "Some experts contend that expired tear gas may lead to more dangerous health effects -- than its non-expired counterpart -- for people heavily exposed to it." It offers no specifics or sources, however.

Reporters collected canisters that stated they were made in 2003 and expired after five years, or 2008. The paper did not name the U.S. manufacturer.

Tear gas is a general term covering more than a dozen chemicals that irritate the eyes, mouth, throat, lungs and skin. The effects are usually temporary, up to an hour, although long-term exposure to large amounts in confined areas can damage eyes or cause severe breathing problems, especially for people with asthma. One protester with respiratory problems died Tuesday in Suez after inhaling tear gas.

Israeli troops reportedly have been using expired, U.S.-made gas on Palestinians in East Jerusalem. A canister recovered during clashes Jan. 21 in Silwan indicates it was made in 2001 and expired in 2006, according to Blog from Middle East.

BFME writes: "The use of expired tear gas has been warned against by doctors, who say that tear gas when expired turns toxic, and far more dangerous to humans and other organisms." Again, no specifics or sources for those claims.

The effectiveness of tear gas does degrade over time when exposed to air.

On Deadline is seeking expert comment on the effects of expired tear gas and will update accordingly.

Anti-government protests in Egypt

Egyptian troops let protests proceed as Mubarak names vice president

By Griff Witte
The Washington Post
Saturday, January 29, 2011; 3:00 PM

CAIRO - Tens of thousands of pro-democracy demonstrators swarmed central Cairo on Saturday in the largest demonstration yet against the rule of the country's longtime autocratic leader, President Hosni Mubarak. The crowd went unchallenged by troops, who, in extraordinary scenes unfolding around the capital's central Tahrir Square, smiled and shook hands with protesters and invited them up onto their tanks.

Meanwhile, Mubarak named a vice president for the first time since coming to power 30 years ago, a government spokesman said - an apparent step toward setting up a successor other than his son, Gamal, whom he had appeared to be grooming for the post, despite public opposition. Mubarak chose as his deputy his intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, a close confidant who is well known to U.S. officials.

Even as protesters celebrated, word of Suleiman's appointment disappointed those who had expected wholesale change. "He is one of Hosni Mubarak's people, and we reject those people. The people should get to pick their leaders," said Mohammed Abdel Rahman, 25.

As a 4 p.m. curfew came and went Saturday, the square - which police had kept off-limits on Friday - was filled with people as far as the eye could see. The police seemed to have disappeared from the streets after vicious clashes the day before. The army had been hailed on the streets as a potential savior, with protesters giving soldiers thumbs up and openly imploring them to join their movement.

On Friday, the troops had appeared steadfastly neutral. Late Saturday, however, they were doing nothing to move demonstrators out of the streets, despite an earlier announcement by security services that anyone remaining in central squares or major roadways after 4 p.m. would face arrest.

Asked whether they would enforce the curfew, soldiers said they would not.

"We are with the people," said Ahmed, a 20-year-old conscript.

Soldiers accepted fruit, water and soda handed out by protesters in Tahrir Square and smiled as protesters chanted, "Go, Mubarak, go!" Children were hoisted up on tanks in the middle of the square to have their photos taken with troops as the hulking remains of the National Democratic Party headquarters building, home to Mubarak's ruling organization, burned in the background.

"These soldiers are Egyptians, too. They are suffering just like we are," said Khalid Ezz el-Din, a 50-year-old businessman who had come to the square to demand Mubarak step down.

Shortly afterward, a convoy of tanks rolled into the square, with as many as 20 protesters riding on each one. As the soldiers smiled and flashed peace signs, the protesters shouted "We are one!" and "Down with Mubarak!" Others held aloft a banner reading, "Game over, Mr. Mubarak."

"This is freedom," said Abdel Nasser Awad. "Now we know Mubarak will leave. The only question is when."

Ahmed Mahmoud, a 50 year-old purchasing manager, said that for the first time he felt proud to be an Egyptian.

"I always wanted to run away from my country," he said. "This moment is the first time I feel like a human being."

Earlier Saturday, there had been widespread looting in some neighborhoods of the capital - including the city's upscale shopping district and the well-to-do suburbs. Government authorities blamed protesters run amok. But demonstrators claimed the destruction was perpetrated by plainclothes employees of the National Democratic Party bent on sowing chaos to discredit the burgeoning pro-democracy campaign.

"We haven't even broken a lamp," said Mohammed Yahya, 23, a student protester. "All of this chaos is caused by the government, so they distort our image."

In addition to waving banners reading, "Down with Mubarak," protesters displayed new placards Saturday that read, "No looting."

Aside from the army, there were few signs of government presence in the streets Saturday, although scattered loyalists remained. On one busy downtown street, a Mubarak supporter dressed in a finely tailored suit attempted to wipe away anti-government graffiti that had been sprayed on the burned-out carcass of an armored personnel carrier.

The capital had descended into near-anarchy Friday night, as the government sent riot police, and then the army, to quell protests by tens of thousands of demonstrators.

News services, citing unnamed Egyptian officials, reported Saturday that the nationwide death toll after five days of protests had risen sharply since Friday to at least 62, including 10 policemen, with about 2,000 injured on both sides. The casualty figures were impossible to verify, however.

"We're not going to stop until Mubarak leaves Egypt. We won't accept anything less," said Dalia Fou-ad, 29, who said she had participated in this week's protests and would continue to do so.

Fou-ad and other demonstrators angrily dismissed as insufficient Mubarak's after-midnight speech Saturday. In the nationally televised address, the president - who had not spoken publicly since the protests began Tuesday - announced he would dismiss his cabinet, but gave no hint that he intends to yield to protesters' demand that he give up office. Egyptian state television said the cabinet officially resigned Saturday. Later in the day, Mubarak named Civil Aviation Minister Ahmed Shafiq the new prime minister.

President Obama said a short time after Mubarak's speech that he had talked with the Egyptian leader after he spoke and pressed him to make long-promised reforms. "What is needed are concrete steps to advance the rights of the Egyptian people," Obama said.

Vice President Biden, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and top national security officials discussed the situation in Egypt for two hours Saturday, and Obama was to receive an update later in the day, the White House said.

Around the region, reaction to the protests varied. Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah expressed support for Mubarak, according to the official Saudi Press Agency, which said the king had called the Egyptian president and quoted him as saying, "No Arab or Muslim can tolerate any meddling in the security and stability of Arab and Muslim Egypt by those who infiltrated the people in the name of freedom of expression, exploiting it to inject their destructive hatred."

In Iran, opposition leader Hossein Mousavi likened the uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen to the protest movement that followed the 2009 disputed presidential election in his country and voiced hope that the protests engulfing Egypt might bring the kind of change that so far had evaded Iran, the Associated Press reported.

At the same time, though, Iran's hard-line leaders also tried to take credit for the uprisings, calling them a replay of the 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled the pro-U.S. shah.

"An Islamic Middle East is taking shape," the AP quoted Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami as saying in his Friday prayers sermon. "A new Middle East is emerging based on Islam . . . based on religious democracy."

In the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on Saturday, a couple of hundred protesters marched toward the Egyptian Embassy calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down, the latest in a string of protests over the past two weeks. But Yemeni police blocked the boisterous crowd of human rights activists and students from approaching the embassy, and moments later, the protesters clashed with pro-government supporters as the police watched. The rally quickly dispersed, as the pro-government faction chanted its support for Saleh and paraded through the streets.

In Jordan, the leader of the powerful Muslim Brotherhood movement warned at a rally outside the Egyptian Embassy in Amman that the unrest in Egypt would spread across the Middle East and that Arabs would toppled their "tyrant" U.S.-allied leaders, the AP reported. Participants in the rally called on Mubarak to step down.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, citing the uncertain situation in Cairo, chartered a plane that brought home the families of its diplomats in the city, along with 37 other Israelis who had been in Egypt for business or as tourists. The Israeli ambassador and his staff remain in Cairo, but the embassy will not open Sunday, a ministry spokesman said.

Cellphone service was restored in Cairo on Saturday morning, 24 hours after a government-ordered communications blackout aimed at stopping Friday's protests. Internet access remained blocked.

Smoke billowed Saturday from the remains of the National Democratic Party headquarters. The building - a prominent symbol of 82-year-old Mubarak's 30-year rule - was reduced to little more than a smoldering mound of concrete.

Success in ousting Mubarak would be a remarkable achievement for a group of demonstrators who have no charismatic leaders, little organization and few clear objectives beyond removing Mubarak and other members of his ruling clique.

Before this week, few thought a mass anti-government movement was possible in Egypt, a country that has little experience with democracy. But after Friday's protests, the campaign to oust Mubarak only seems to be gathering strength.

Egyptian demonstrators are hoping to replicate the success of pro-democracy advocates in Tunisia, who this month ousted their autocratic president and sparked a wave of imitators across the region. Because Egypt has long been seen as the political center of the Arab world, the end of Mubarak's rule would reverberate particularly deeply.

The government had worked assiduously to keep the protests from even happening. It took extraordinary measures to block communications, cutting all Internet connections and mobile phone networks. Overnight Thursday, dozens of opposition leaders were rounded up and arrested. At dawn Friday, thousands of riot police filled the streets of Cairo.

Mohamed ElBaradei, a political reform advocate and Nobel Peace Prize laureate who returned to Egypt from abroad to participate, was soaked with a water cannon and later placed under house arrest, the Associated Press reported. ElBaradei, the former chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has said he wants to lead Egypt in a peaceful transition to democratic government.

The protests were launched after Friday midday prayers. They started small, with police moving in immediately to try to suppress them. But the gatherings soon swelled, and the police tactics escalated. Throughout the afternoon and evening, security services fired hundreds of tear gas shells, shot unarmed protesters and beat them with clubs. Despite those efforts, the protesters continued to surge toward downtown Cairo and, after dark, began setting fire to police vehicles and government buildings, as well as the headquarters of the National Democratic Party.

Until then, the protesters had largely refrained from initiating violence, choosing instead to chant slogans and wave the Egyptian flag. When tear gas canisters sailed toward them, protesters swooped in and tried to either throw them back or to cast them into the waters of the Nile.

Protesters vowed to continue their demonstrations until Mubarak leaves office. "This is no longer a time of fear. It's a time of change," said Mohammed Nabil, a 35-year-old doctor who, like many, said he was participating in his first protest. "We want Mubarak to leave and end 30 years of oppression."

Despite calls by Egypt's main opposition party, the Muslim Brotherhood, for members to join the movement, this week's protests have been decidedly secular. Demonstrators, most of whom appear to be members of the nation's middle class, said their campaign has little to do with religion.

"We need a just government. It doesn't matter whether it's Islamic or secular. The issue is justice," said Mustafa Reda, a 22-year-old whose eyes were bloodshot and throat raw from choking on tear gas.

Reda said he took to the streets only after friends were killed earlier in the week in demonstrations in the northeastern city of Suez. Protests there, in Alexandria and in cities across Egypt continued Friday.

It was unclear how many protesters were killed or injured during Friday's mayhem. At one point in Cairo, an armored personnel carrier steered directly into a swarm of demonstrators. A police officer firing from a hatch in the roof shot at least two men. When fellow protesters tried to drive the wounded men away, police stopped their vehicle, forced all able-bodied occupants out and relentlessly beat them in the middle of the street.

Throughout the afternoon, protesters and police waged pitched battles from either side of three majestic bridges that span the Nile. Police would send tear gas canisters soaring from one end of the bridge to the other and temporarily force the protesters to flee. But each time, the protesters surged back, and just after dusk, they forced the police into a full retreat across one of the spans.

In addition to calling for the ouster of the president, protesters also demanded that the U.S. government support their cause. Osama el-Ghazi Harb, a prominent Egyptian writer, held aloft an empty teargas canister that only minutes earlier had been fired at him and several hundred other protesters.

"I'm very sorry to say that it was made in the U.S.A.," Harb said. "The U.S. must condemn this use of force and, at the proper moment, tell Mubarak to get out."

Many journalists who attempted to report on the demonstrations were attacked by plainclothes security officers who smashed cameras and bloodied the face of at least one BBC reporter. The journalist later went on the air to report the assault.

Many of those injured in the protests said they would not go to hospitals for fear of being arrested, and instead went home or simply stayed in the street.

The ranks of the protesters included a significant number of government employees, who used their day off from work to call for their president to go. "All the Egyptian people are oppressed, and their time has come. Enough is enough," said a man who identified himself as a diplomat with the nation's Foreign Ministry but would give only his first name, Ahmed. "I know Egyptians, and they will not stop until Mubarak is gone."

Special correspondents Sherine Bayoumi in Cairo and Joel Greenberg in Jerusalem and correspondent Sudarsan Raghavan in Sanaa, Yemen, contributed to this report.

Egypt protests: America's secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising

The Daily Telegraph
29 January 2011

The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.

By Tim Ross, Matthew Moore and Steven Swinford 9:23PM GMT 28 Jan 2011

The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.

On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.

******************************************************
The secret document in full

Here is the secret document sent from the US Embassy in Cairo to Washington disclosing the extent of American support for the protesters behind the Egypt uprising.
10:30PM GMT 28 Jan 2011

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 002572 SIPDIS FOR NEA/ELA, R, S/P

AND H NSC FOR PASCUAL AND KUTCHA-HELBLING E.O. 12958: DECL:

12/30/2028 TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, EG SUBJECT: APRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS

U.S. VISIT AND REGIME CHANGE IN EGYPT REF: A. CAIRO 2462 B.

CAIRO 2454 C. CAIRO 2431 Classified By: ECPO A/Mincouns

Catherine Hill-Herndon for reason 1.4 (d ). 1. (C) Summary and

comment: On December 23, April 6 activist xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed

satisfaction with his participation in the December 3-5 \"Alliance of

Youth Movements Summit,\" and with his subsequent meetings with USG

officials, on Capitol Hill, and with think tanks. He described how

State Security (SSIS) detained him at the Cairo airport upon his

return and confiscated his notes for his summit presentation calling

for democratic change in Egypt, and his schedule for his Congressional

meetings. xxxxxxxxxxxx contended that the GOE will never undertake

significant reform, and therefore, Egyptians need to replace the

current regime with a parliamentary democracy. He alleged that

several opposition parties and movements have accepted an unwritten

plan for democratic transition by 2011; we are doubtful of this claim.

xxxxxxxxxxxx said that although SSIS recently released two April 6

activists, it also arrested three additional group members. We have

pressed the MFA for the release of these April 6 activists. April 6's

stated goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary

democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections is highly

unrealistic, and is not supported by the mainstream opposition. End

summary and comment. ---------------------------- Satisfaction with

the Summit ---------------------------- 2. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed

satisfaction with the December 3-5 \"Alliance of Youth Movements

Summit\" in New York, noting that he was able to meet activists from

other countries and outline his movement's goals for democratic change

in Egypt. He told us that the other activists at the summit were very

supportive, and that some even offered to hold public demonstrations

in support of Egyptian democracy in their countries, with xxxxxxxxxxxx

as an invited guest. xxxxxxxxxxxx said he discussed with the other

activists how April 6 members could more effectively evade harassment

and surveillance from SSIS with technical upgrades, such as

consistently alternating computer \"simcards.\" However, xxxxxxxxxxxx

lamented to us that because most April 6 members do not own computers,

this tactic would be impossible to implement. xxxxxxxxxxxx was

appreciative of the successful efforts by the Department and the

summit organizers to protect his identity at the summit, and told us

that his name was never mentioned publicly. ------------------- A

Cold Welcome Home ------------------- 3. (S) xxxxxxxxxxxx told us

that SSIS detained and searched him at the Cairo Airport on December

18 upon his return from the U.S. According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, SSIS

found and confiscated two documents in his luggage: notes for his

presentation at the summit that described April 6's demands for

democratic transition in Egypt, and a schedule of his Capitol Hill

meetings. xxxxxxxxxxxx described how the SSIS officer told him that

State Security is compiling a file on him, and that the officer's

superiors instructed him to file a report on xxxxxxxxxxxx most recent

activities. --------------------------------------------- ----------

Washington Meetings and April 6 Ideas for Regime Change

--------------------------------------------- ---------- 4. (C)

xxxxxxxxxxxx described his Washington appointments as positive, saying

that on the Hill he met with xxxxxxxxxxxx, a variety of House staff

members, including from the offices of xxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx),

and with two Senate staffers. xxxxxxxxxxxx also noted that he met

with several think tank members. xxxxxxxxxxxx said that xxxxxxxxxxxx's

office invited him to speak at a late January Congressional hearing on

House Resolution 1303 regarding religious and political freedom in

Egypt. xxxxxxxxxxxx told us he is interested in attending, but

conceded he is unsure whether he will have the funds to make the trip.

He indicated to us that he has not been focusing on his work as a

\"fixer\" for journalists, due to his preoccupation with his U.S.

trip. 5. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx described how he tried to convince his

Washington interlocutors that the USG should pressure the GOE to

implement significant reforms by threatening to reveal CAIRO 00002572

002 OF 002 information about GOE officials' alleged \"illegal\"

off-shore bank accounts. He hoped that the U.S. and the international

community would freeze these bank accounts, like the accounts of

Zimbabwean President Mugabe's confidantes. xxxxxxxxxxxx said he wants

to convince the USG that Mubarak is worse than Mugabe and that the GOE

will never accept democratic reform. xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that

Mubarak derives his legitimacy from U.S. support, and therefore

charged the U.S. with \"being responsible\" for Mubarak's \"crimes.\"

He accused NGOs working on political and economic reform of living in

a \"fantasy world,\" and not recognizing that Mubarak -- \"the head of

the snake\" -- must step aside to enable democracy to take root. 6.

(C) xxxxxxxxxxxx claimed that several opposition forces -- including

the Wafd, Nasserite, Karama and Tagammu parties, and the Muslim

Brotherhood, Kifaya, and Revolutionary Socialist movements -- have

agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a

parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an

empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011

presidential elections (ref C). According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, the

opposition is interested in receiving support from the army and the

police for a transitional government prior to the 2011 elections.

xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that this plan is so sensitive it cannot be

written down. (Comment: We have no information to corroborate that

these parties and movements have agreed to the unrealistic plan

xxxxxxxxxxxx has outlined. Per ref C, xxxxxxxxxxxx previously told us

that this plan was publicly available on the internet. End comment.)

7. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx said that the GOE has recently been cracking down

on the April 6 movement by arresting its members. xxxxxxxxxxxx noted

that although SSIS had released xxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx \"in the

past few days,\" it had arrested three other members. (Note: On

December 14, we pressed the MFA for the release of xxxxxxxxxxxx and

xxxxxxxxxxxx, and on December 28 we asked the MFA for the GOE to

release the additional three activists. End note.) xxxxxxxxxxxx

conceded that April 6 has no feasible plans for future activities.

The group would like to call for another strike on April 6, 2009, but

realizes this would be \"impossible\" due to SSIS interference,

xxxxxxxxxxxx said. He lamented that the GOE has driven the group's

leadership underground, and that one of its leaders, xxxxxxxxxxxx, has

been in hiding for the past week. 8. (C) Comment: xxxxxxxxxxxx

offered no roadmap of concrete steps toward April 6's highly

unrealistic goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary

democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections. Most opposition

parties and independent NGOs work toward achieving tangible,

incremental reform within the current political context, even if they

may be pessimistic about their chances of success. xxxxxxxxxxxx

wholesale rejection of such an approach places him outside this

mainstream of opposition politicians and activists.

SCOBEY02008-12-307386PGOV,PHUM,KDEM,EGAPRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS U.S.

VISIT AND REGIME CHANGE IN EGYPT

******************************************************

He has already been arrested by Egyptian security in connection with the demonstrations and his identity is being protected by The Daily Telegraph.

The crisis in Egypt follows the toppling of Tunisian president Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali, who fled the country after widespread protests forced him from office.

The disclosures, contained in previously secret US diplomatic dispatches released by the WikiLeaks website, show American officials pressed the Egyptian government to release other dissidents who had been detained by the police.

Mr Mubarak, facing the biggest challenge to his authority in his 31 years in power, ordered the army on to the streets of Cairo yesterday as rioting erupted across Egypt.

Tens of thousands of anti-government protesters took to the streets in open defiance of a curfew. An explosion rocked the centre of Cairo as thousands defied orders to return to their homes. As the violence escalated, flames could be seen near the headquarters of the governing National Democratic Party.

Police fired rubber bullets and used tear gas and water cannon in an attempt to disperse the crowds.

At least five people were killed in Cairo alone yesterday and 870 injured, several with bullet wounds. Mohamed ElBaradei, the pro-reform leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner, was placed under house arrest after returning to Egypt to join the dissidents. Riots also took place in Suez, Alexandria and other major cities across the country.

William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, urged the Egyptian government to heed the “legitimate demands of protesters”. Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, said she was “deeply concerned about the use of force” to quell the protests.

In an interview for the American news channel CNN, to be broadcast tomorrow, David Cameron said: “I think what we need is reform in Egypt. I mean, we support reform and progress in the greater strengthening of the democracy and civil rights and the rule of law.”

The US government has previously been a supporter of Mr Mubarak’s regime. But the leaked documents show the extent to which America was offering support to pro-democracy activists in Egypt while publicly praising Mr Mubarak as an important ally in the Middle East.

In a secret diplomatic dispatch, sent on December 30 2008, Margaret Scobey, the US Ambassador to Cairo, recorded that opposition groups had allegedly drawn up secret plans for “regime change” to take place before elections, scheduled for September this year.

The memo, which Ambassador Scobey sent to the US Secretary of State in Washington DC, was marked “confidential” and headed: “April 6 activist on his US visit and regime change in Egypt.”

It said the activist claimed “several opposition forces” had “agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011 presidential elections”. The embassy’s source said the plan was “so sensitive it cannot be written down”.

Ambassador Scobey questioned whether such an “unrealistic” plot could work, or ever even existed. However, the documents showed that the activist had been approached by US diplomats and received extensive support for his pro-democracy campaign from officials in Washington. The embassy helped the campaigner attend a “summit” for youth activists in New York, which was organised by the US State Department.

Cairo embassy officials warned Washington that the activist’s identity must be kept secret because he could face “retribution” when he returned to Egypt. He had already allegedly been tortured for three days by Egyptian state security after he was arrested for taking part in a protest some years earlier.

The protests in Egypt are being driven by the April 6 youth movement, a group on Facebook that has attracted mainly young and educated members opposed to Mr Mubarak. The group has about 70,000 members and uses social networking sites to orchestrate protests and report on their activities.

The documents released by WikiLeaks reveal US Embassy officials were in regular contact with the activist throughout 2008 and 2009, considering him one of their most reliable sources for information about human rights abuses.

Pharaoh's End

Protests rocked Egypt, calling into question whether President Hosni Mubarak's regime can survive. FP asked five top experts how Barack Obama should respond to the growing signs of revolt on Egypt's streets.
JANUARY 28, 2011

View the FP photo essay on Egypt's "Day of Rage."

Shadi Hamid: How Obama Got Egypt Wrong

Sherif Mansour: It's Freedom, Stupid

Emad Shahin: Obama Still Doesn't Know What To Do About Arab Autocrats

Daniel Brumberg: Mubarak Is Prepared to Fight

Nathan Brown: Speak Softly, But Sweet Talk Them Out of Using a Big Stick

Egypt's regime is teetering. Most of those out on the streets have known only one president; over nearly six decades, Egypt has known only three. At this point almost any outcome is possible --return to stagnation, continued unrest, a gentle retirement for President Hosni Mubarak when his term ends later this year, even regime collapse. U.S. interests in Egypt are many and they are long term in nature. The United States needs to make policy with an eye on the future without knowing what tomorrow will bring. But it is therefore especially important to remember that while this is a critical moment, it is primarily an Egyptian moment with primarily Egyptian players.

Placing Egypt at the center of U.S. thinking does not mean writing America out. The United States is neither a totally innocent bystander nor a totally powerless actor.

The U.S. government is not innocent as it has closely associated itself with the regime, supplied it with generous assistance, and closely knitted the two countries' regional policies together in many areas. Tension in the relationship has been steady, but most Egyptians regard their regime as overly solicitous of American concerns. America is not a major issue in events yet, and the Obama team should strive to keep the United States from becoming one.

But if U.S. policymakers are operating a bit in the dark and unable to drive events, they are not totally powerless. The demonstrators on the streets will likely heed few of Obama's words, but Egypt's rulers will want to know something about their international position and reputation. If Obama signals clearly that he would be horrified if they lean toward a brutal response, his stand will figure into their calculations.

Obama's tone should be polite and focus on Egypt's long-term future. He need not endorse the protests but should make clear that a regime that rules only on the basis of brute force is not a promising long-term partner. The Untied States need not disassociate itself entirely from Egypt's rulers, but can gently suggest that some of their methods give pause.

And as Americans, all of us should keep reminding ourselves that if this is an Egyptian moment, we need to resist the temptation to understand it only in terms of U.S. domestic politics. The Obama administration has sensibly refrained from taking credit for events; its supporters should do the same even if the outcome is ultimately positive. And if Obama's critics react (as some have begun to do) by bouncing between blaming him for allowing Islamists to glimpse power and excoriating his timidity in the face of an autocrat, we should tune them out.

Nor is this a time to succumb to Ikwanophobia. Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood is a player in events, but not the primary one. If it emerges as a more savvy and influential political player, that is a positive development for Egypt -- so long as it is one player among many others. Egypt's rulers missed an opportunity to build a healthier political system that incorporated more actors earlier in this decade. They decided to shore up cronyism and autocracy rather than embrace pluralism and democracy. They may now be given a second chance. We cannot make them take it, but we can sweetly suggest they resist the urge to smash it.

Nathan J. Brown is professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.



Shadi Hamid: How Obama Got Egypt Wrong

The Obama administration's initial response to the ongoing Egyptian revolt was disappointing, but not surprising. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, perhaps unwittingly, conveyed the essential thrust of U.S. policy Tuesday when she called the Egyptian regime "stable." For decades, the United States has prioritized a now clearly illusory stability over American ideals. It appears the administration, slowly, is realizing its mistake -- and that of its predecessors. President Obama's remarks earlier today -- in which he spoke of the universal rights of the Egyptian people - suggested a possible shift in tone. This, however, may prove a perfect example of "too little, too late."

Those who propose the United States somehow adopt an approach of "noninterference" should remember that silence will be interpreted as complicity by Egyptians. America, after all, far from a bystander, is the Egyptian regime's primary benefactor. The billions it has given Egypt in economic and military aid means that the United States, more than any other country, enjoys significant leverage with Egypt. Now is the time to use it.

For starters, stronger rhetoric is necessary. This is not the time for expressions of "concern." The gravity of the situation, and the sacrifices of the protesters, requires a more appropriate language. It is worth looking back at the "color revolutions" of Eastern Europe for inspiration. During Ukraine's second round of (fraudulent) elections in 2004, then Secretary of State Colin Powell said the following: "If the Ukrainian government does not act immediately and responsibly, there will be consequences for our relationship, for Ukraine's hopes for a Euro-Atlantic integration, and for individuals responsible for perpetrating fraud." [Open to something else instead]

What should the goal of U.S. pressure be? First, to prevent the Egyptian regime from using excessive force, to permit protesters the right to peacefully assemble, and to ensure that what happened Friday -- an unprecedented blockage of Internet and mobile services-- does not happen again. It should then be made clear that the U.S.-Egypt relationship will suffer if those expectations are not met. This, for example, may include cutting military aid.

America was rightly credited for playing a significant role in facilitating democratic transitions in Ukraine as well as Georgia and Serbia (though the follow-through may have been lacking). If the United States is seen as helping make another transition possible, this time in Egypt, it will give Americans much-needed credibility in the region. Successful transitions in Egypt and Tunisia could herald a reimagined relationship between the United States and the Arab world, as Obama promised in his 2009 Cairo address, titled "A New Beginning."

Lastly, no one should underestimate the crucial role of international actors. Rarely do successful democratic transitions occur without constructive engagement from Western governments and organizations.

Of course, a major question remains: does the United States, in fact, want real democracy in Egypt? Or would it prefer that the current regime -- perhaps after agreeing to reforms -- somehow stay in power? Answering that may be one of the most important things President Obama does this year.

Shadi Hamid is director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.

Sherif Mansour: It's Freedom, Stupid

There's only one lesson that American foreign policymakers should take from recent events in Tunisia and Egypt: freedom matters. The United States has continually supported Mubarak and other oppressive regimes in the region, and now the chickens are coming home to roost. The Obama administration it finds itself between a rock and a hard place, forced to choose whether to support the ideals of freedom and democracy it espouses and run the risk that in the aftermath, the United States will have lost its allies in the region, or stick with the devil it knows.

If the administration is smart, it will see the writing on the wall and realize that the old order in Egypt, and conceivably the rest of the Middle East, is gone forever. When the smoke clears, Washington will want to be on the right side of history. The United States must now withdraw its support, both financial and symbolic, from the Mubarak regime and avoid any further ties to its oppression.

The retreat of the police force in the major cities Friday indicates the end of the oldest and most repressive police state in the Middle East region. Obama should publicly acknowledge this fact. The Egyptian people have spoken, and the Egyptian regime should follow the police into the dustbin of history. The Egyptian army shouldn't replace police's role in repressing demonstrators, but rather ensure that the Egyptian people's aspirations for freedom and democracy and dignity are met.

Most of all, Obama should make his actions speak louder than words. In these moments of truth, the United States should always take the side of the people. It should offer its help in building democratic institutions while refraining from endorsing any particular candidate or party. It should freeze its foreign-aid package to Egypt until a more just, transparent, and accountable government is in place.

Moreover, Obama should move before it is too late. More important than what the U.S. president says is when he says it. For two years, Egypt experts have urged Obama to put greater pressure on the Egyptian regime, but their words fall on deaf ears. It is time for Obama to respond like he did in Tunisia and hail the courage of the Egyptian people -- but before Mubarak's regime utterly collapses, because at that point it will be too late.

Sherif Mansour is senior programs officer at Freedom House.

Emad Shahin: Obama Still Doesn't Know What To Do About Arab Autocrats

President Obama, in his State of the Union address this week, assured Tunisians and the people of the Middle East of America's support of their democratic aspirations. Yet, on her statement on the same day on the popular protests in Egypt, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described Hosni Mubarak's government as "stable" and said it was "looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people." This apparent contradiction clearly demonstrates that when it comes to aspiration of democratic changes in the Arab world, the U.S. administration is completely out of touch with reality.

The reality is that Mubarak's government seems stable thanks only to massive repression, his disempowering of civil society, and the financial and security support of his Western allies. This is not a different reality from the one shared by other U.S. allies in the region, such as Jordan, Tunisia, and Yemen, all of which are now challenged by massive demonstrations.

It is clear that the United States has been taken by surprise by the extent of the popular anger. To catch up with the quickly unfolding events, it has been sending mixed messages to close allies and their angry populations alike. With rhetoric oscillating between pragmatic realism and Jeffersonian idealism, the Obama administration has expressed willingness to help the regimes carry out necessary reforms; urged all parties to refrain from violence; and acknowledge the "universal" rights of the people. The real story is that the United States, and, for that matter the European Union, is still conducting business as usual and wants to see social, economic, and political reform take place from within the existing regime.

But how about what the people want? And can the United States afford to ignore, or underestimate the message these angry citizens are trying to send? The people of the region are fed up with decades of repression, corruption, and humiliation. Their demands are clear: a total break with an authoritarian past and a new beginning of freedom, social justice, and dignity.

The Obama administration needs to realize that it cannot thread the needle. The status quo is hard -- if not impossible -- to sustain. These protests are unprecedented in intensity and in the unyielding nature of their agenda. Driven by frustrated youth, they involve a wider swath of society and embrace economic and political goals that cannot easily be separated, as in past protests.

U.S. support for Middle East dictators has spawned deep anti-American sentiments in the Arab world, and chaotic Iraq and Afghanistan hardly present an attractive model. The best thing the United States can do now is to back off and let the peoples of the region chart their own course. Shoring up repressive rulers and denying citizens their legitimate democratic rights out of fear of change or an Islamist takeover will no longer work, if it ever did. The popular uprisings across the Arab world go beyond ideology and religion. They are about freedom, social justice and democracy. That's what America is supposed to stand for. Why should the Middle East be any different?

Emad Shahin is the Henry R. Luce associate professor of religion at the University of Notre Dame.

Daniel Brumberg: Mubarak Is Prepared to Fight

President Hosni Mubarak is not going anywhere: that's the message of his late night televised statement. And it is hardly surprising. Whatever we may think of him, he is not going to grab the gold and head for the hills (or sands), Ben Ali style. There is no reason to assume that he doesn't believe what he said: Mubarak views himself as a loyal Egyptian citizen who has steered a difficult course between the quest for stability and economic modernization and the exigencies of democracy. He believes that the quest for safety, jobs and security must bound the limits of freedom, or there will be chaos (fawda). He has spent his life striking this difficult balance, he told us, and thus he is not about to give up now.

That this reasoning will fall on deaf ears is something Mubarak either doesn't understand or will not tolerate. This action presages a more severe crackdown, but one that might be followed by an effort to heal wounds. Indeed, when a severe-looking Mubarak promised a "dialogue," he may have been signaling his desire to emulate previous Egyptian leaders by reaching out to the opposition after a period of discontent and renewed repression.

This cycle goes back to 1974, when Anwar Sadat initiated his "Infitah" policy. Seven years later, following his efforts to repress dissent, he was gunned down by a radical Islamist and member of the military, who proudly declared, "I have shot the Pharaoh." The man sitting next to Sadat, Vice President Mubarak, took the mantle of the presidency and then declared a new day of political reconciliation and openness.

Is it back to the future? Can Mubarak -- or indeed anyone from the top echelons of the political pyramid -- distance themselves from the very system over which they have presided for thirty years?

I have my doubts. What I am sure of is that the mass protests of the last days have revealed a new social landscape -- one that could help turn a popular rebellion into a democratic revolution. Whether this happens through a prolonged struggle to recast liberalized autocracy from within, or a shorter street battle that topples the regime, is hard to say. But one thing is clear: Egypt's new social landscape is defined by an alliance of angry youth whose political identities cannot be reduced to religion or faith.

In making this assertion, I am not embracing the "post-Islamist" thesis that has received renewed attention since Tunisia's revolution burst on the scene. Indeed, rumors of the inevitable irrelevance of Islamists have been greatly exaggerated. But what we do have in today's Egypt, and in Tunisia as well, is the growing desire of a vulnerable urban middle class youth to bridge the gap between Islamist and non-Islamist identities and agendas.

If Islamists and non-Islamists, as well as Muslims and Copts, can join together, they will undercut the fear-mongering strategies that autocrats throughout the Arab world have long used to secure support from those groups that fear an "Islamist" takeover. This is reason enough for veteran Islamists to set aside the ambiguities that characterize their ideologies, and in so doing, fully embrace the premises and rules of democratic pluralism.

Daniel Brumberg is a senior advisor to the Center for Conflict Management at the United States Institute of Peace and co-director of Democracy and Governance Studies at Georgetown University.

Washington and Mr. Mubarak

Editorial
NY Times
Published: January 28, 2011

Both President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, in power for three decades, and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, in power for 23 years, should have seen this coming. They didn’t — or didn’t care. Both countries share similar pressures: huge numbers of young people without jobs, growing outrage over abusive security forces, corrupt leaders, repressive political systems.

Their people are right to demand more from their governments. The status quo is unsustainable and the result, perhaps inevitable, has been an explosion of protests and rioting in the streets of both countries.

Egypt, with Mr. Mubarak in charge, is an American ally and a recipient of nearly $1.5 billion in aid annually. It is the biggest country in the Arab world and was the first to make peace with Israel. Yemen is home to a dangerous Al Qaeda affiliate and has given the United States pretty much free rein to go after the extremists.

All of which leaves Washington in a quandary, trying to balance national security concerns and its moral responsibility to stand with those who have the courage to oppose authoritarian rulers. American officials must already be wondering what will happen to the fight against Al Qaeda if Mr. Saleh is deposed. And what will happen to efforts to counter Iran and promote Arab-Israeli peace if Mr. Mubarak is suddenly gone?

We won’t try to game Yemen’s politics. Even in Egypt, it’s impossible to know who might succeed Mr. Mubarak. He has made sure that there is no loyal opposition and little in the way of democratic institutions.

In the past, Washington has often pulled its punches on human rights and democracy to protect unholy security alliances with dictators, like Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines. There came a time when it was obvious that the Marcos tie was damaging American security interests and President Ronald Reagan — along with a people power revolution — played a role in easing him peacefully out of power.

Whether that point comes with Mr. Mubarak is now up to him. So far, he has shown arrogance and tone-deafness. He has met the spiraling protests with spiraling levels of force and repression. On Friday, in a sign more of weakness than strength, the government shut down Internet access and cellphone service. The protestors were undeterred.

Early Saturday, Mr. Mubarak ordered all of his ministers to resign and said his new government would accelerate reforms. He would be far more persuasive if he lifted the communications blackout, reeled in his security forces, allowed credible candidates to compete for president this year, and ensured a free and fair election.

Cables released by WikiLeaks show that the Obama administration has been privately pushing Mr. Mubarak to wake up, release jailed dissidents and pursue reforms. Unfortunately, those private exhortations did not get very far.

The administration struggled to get its public message right this week. On Thursday, it made clear that while Mr. Mubarak is a valuable ally, it is not taking sides but is trying to work with both the government and the protesters. By Friday, the White House said it was ready to “review” aid to Egypt — after Mr. Mubarak cut most communications, called out the army and effectively put Mohamed ElBaradei, a leading opposition figure and former leader of the International Atomic Energy Agency, under house arrest.

Mr. Obama will have to be willing to actually cut that aid if Mr. Mubarak turns the protests into a bloodbath and fails to open up Egypt’s political system.

Cairo in near-anarchy as protesters push to oust president

By Griff Witte
The Washington Post
Saturday, January 29, 2011; 4:28 AM

CAIRO - The Egyptian capital descended into near-anarchy Friday night, as the government sent riot police, and then the army, to quell protests by tens of thousands of demonstrators determined to push President Hosni Mubarak from office.

By the end of the day-long battle, the protesters were still standing and the police were nowhere to be seen. Mubarak - who had not spoken publicly since the protests began Tuesday - made a televised speech after midnight, announcing that he had asked his cabinet to resign. The move fell far short of protesters' demands and seemed likely to ensure that the anti-government demonstrations that have erupted here would continue.

President Obama said a short time later that he had talked with the Egyptian president after his speech and pressed Mubarak to make long-promised reforms. "What is needed are concrete steps to advance the rights of the Egyptian people," Obama said.

On Saturday, hundreds of protesters gathered at Cairo's central Tahrir Square to again call for Mubarak's ouster.

It remained unclear what role the Egyptian military might play. Mubarak, a former air force officer, draws much of his strength from the military, and any decision by the armed forces to withdraw support would mean the certain end of his rule.

But unlike the police, which unleashed an arsenal of weapons against the demonstrators, the military did not take any immediate action, and protesters gleefully welcomed the soldiers' arrival in a thundering of personnel carriers.

Protesters were honking their horns in celebration and roaming freely through central parts of the city late in the evening, in defiance of a strict curfew. The night air was thick with black smoke, and the sounds of explosions, gunshots, sirens, cries and occasional cheers echoed through the darkness.

The protests, which were launched in cities nationwide but were largest in Cairo, were the most serious in Egypt's modern history. Protesters have called for Mubarak, who at 82 has ruled this country with an iron fist for 30 years, to give up his position, leave the country and allow fresh elections.

Success in ousting Mubarak would be a remarkable achievement for a group of demonstrators who have no charismatic leaders, little organization, and few clear objectives beyond removing this nation's autocratic president and other members of his ruling clique.

Before this week, few thought a mass anti-government movement was possible in Egypt, a country that has little experience with democracy. But after Friday's protests, the campaign to oust Mubarak only seems to be gathering strength.

Egyptian demonstrators are hoping to replicate the success of pro-democracy advocates in Tunisia, who this month ousted their autocratic president and sparked a wave of imitators across the region. Because Egypt has long been seen as the political center of the Arab world, the end of Mubarak's rule would reverberate particularly deeply.

The government had worked assiduously to keep the protests from even happening. It took extraordinary measures to block communications, cutting all Internet connections and mobile phone networks.

Cellphone service was restored in some areas Saturday, although Internet access remained blocked.

Overnight Thursday, dozens of opposition leaders were rounded up and arrested. At dawn Friday, thousands of riot police filled the streets of Cairo.

Mohamed ElBaradei, a political reform advocate and Nobel Peace Prize laureate who returned to Egypt from abroad to participate, was soaked with a water cannon and later placed under house arrest, the Associated Press reported. ElBaradei, the former chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has said he wants to lead Egypt in a peaceful transition to democratic government.

The protests were launched after midday prayers. They started small, with police moving in immediately to try to suppress them. But the gatherings soon swelled, and the police tactics escalated. Throughout the afternoon and evening, security services fired hundreds of tear gas shells, shot unarmed protesters and beat them with clubs. Despite those efforts, the protesters continued to surge toward downtown Cairo and, after dark, began setting fire to police vehicles and government buildings, as well as the headquarters of the ruling National Democratic Party.

Until then, the protesters had largely refrained from initiating violence, choosing instead to chant slogans and wave the Egyptian flag. When tear gas canisters sailed toward them, protesters swooped in and tried to either throw them back or to cast them into the waters of the Nile.

Protesters vowed to continue their demonstrations until Mubarak leaves office. "This is no longer a time of fear. It's a time of change," said Mohammed Nabil, a 35-year-old doctor who, like many, said he was participating in his first protest. "We want Mubarak to leave and end 30 years of oppression."

Despite calls by Egypt's main opposition party, the Muslim Brotherhood, for members to join the movement, this week's protests have been decidedly secular. Demonstrators, most of whom appear to be members of the nation's middle class, said their campaign has little to do with religion.

"We need a just government. It doesn't matter whether it's Islamic or secular. The issue is justice," said Mustafa Reda, a 22-year-old whose eyes were bloodshot and throat raw from choking on tear gas.

Reda said he took to the streets only after friends were killed earlier in the week in demonstrations in the northeastern city of Suez. Protests there, in Alexandria and in cities across Egypt continued Friday.

It was unclear how many protesters were killed or injured during Friday's mayhem. At one point in Cairo, an armored personnel carrier steered directly into a swarm of demonstrators. A police officer firing from a hatch in the roof shot at least two men. When fellow protesters tried to drive the wounded men away, police stopped their vehicle, forced all able-bodied occupants out and relentlessly beat them in the middle of the street.

Throughout the afternoon, protesters and police waged pitched battles from either side of three majestic bridges that span the Nile. Police would send tear gas canisters soaring from one end of the bridge to the other and temporarily force the protesters to flee. But each time, the protesters surged back, and just after dusk, they forced the police into a full retreat across one of the spans.

In addition to calling for the ouster of the president, protesters also demanded that the U.S. government support their cause. Osama el-Ghazi Harb, a prominent Egyptian writer, held aloft an empty teargas canister that only minutes earlier had been fired at him and several hundred other protesters.

"I'm very sorry to say that it was made in the U.S.A.," Harb said. "The U.S. must condemn this use of force and, at the proper moment, tell Mubarak to get out."

Many journalists who attempted to report on the demonstrations were attacked by plainclothes security officers who smashed cameras and bloodied the face of at least one BBC reporter. The journalist later went on the air to report the assault.

Many of those injured in the protests said they would not go to hospitals for fear of being arrested, and instead went home or simply stayed in the street.

The ranks of the protesters included a significant number of government employees, who used their day off from work to call for their president to go. "All the Egyptian people are oppressed, and their time has come. Enough is enough," said a man who identified himself as a diplomat with the nation's Foreign Ministry but would give only his first name, Ahmed. "I know Egyptians, and they will not stop until Mubarak is gone."

Special correspondent Sherine Bayoumi contributed to this report.