Gates: Gulf Nations Must Confront Iran

By LOLITA C. BALDOR
The Associated Press
Saturday, December 8, 2007; 7:34 AM

MANAMA, Bahrain -- Persian Gulf nations must demand that Iran come clean about its past nuclear ambitions and openly vow to not develop such weapons in the future, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Saturday.

In a broad call to diplomatic arms, Gates exhorted leaders from the Gulf to band together to force Iran to stop its uranium enrichment program and to help the fragile Iraqi government.

"Everywhere you turn, it is the policy of Iran to foment instability and chaos, no matter the strategic value or cost in the blood of innocents _ Christians, Jews and Muslims alike," Gates said in a keynote address at an international security conference.

"There can be little doubt that their destabilizing foreign policies are a threat to the interests of the United States, to the interests of every country in the Middle East, and to the interests of all countries within the range of the ballistic missiles Iran is developing," he continued.

And in a sarcastic riff, he goaded Iran to acknowledge its bad behavior _ from arming terrorists in Iraq to its support for militant organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas.

Some questioners challenged his thinking on Iran, underscoring the divide among Arab nations over America's tough stance on Tehran. Asked if the United States would be willing to talk with Iran, Gates said the behavior of Iran's new leadership "has not given one confidence that a dialogue would be productive."

Noting that Iran embraced the recent U.S. intelligence estimate that concluded it had actually stopped atomic weapons development in 2003, Gates drew chuckles from the crowd when he suggested that Iran should accept that all other intelligence conclusions about its conduct are true. Earlier this week, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad hailed it as a "declaration of victory" for his country.

"In reality, you cannot pick and choose only the conclusions you like of this National Intelligence Estimate," Gates said. "Since that government now acknowledges the quality of American intelligence assessments, I assume that it also will embrace as valid American intelligence assessments of its funding and training of militia groups in Iraq."

Gates said Iran should also acknowledge it delivers weapons to terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan, supports terror groups and continues to develop ballistic missiles that could be used to carry weapons of mass destruction.

Gates' rebukes didn't reach any Iranian ears directly, since Iran abruptly decided not to attend the gathering, organized by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

While Gates used the intelligence estimate as a hammer against Iran here, the report has bruised the Bush administration. The findings were in stark contrast to a 2005 estimate that said Tehran was continuing its weapons development.

And it flies in the face of President Bush's rhetoric on Iran, such as when he said in October that people "interested in avoiding World War III" should be working to prevent Iran from having the knowledge needed to make a nuclear weapon.

The administration has acknowledged that the report may make it harder to build international support to persuade Iran to give up its uranium enrichment program. When asked about it, Gates agreed the report came at an awkward time and "it has annoyed a number of our good friends, it has confused a lot of people around the world in terms of what we are trying to accomplish."

Gates' speech followed efforts by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to press for new sanctions against Iran.

Rice asserted Friday in Brussels, Belgium, that Washington would continue pressing for new sanctions against Iran while holding talks to convince Tehran to come clean about its nuclear program.

But Russia ignored her calls to punish Iran. Despite continued support from NATO and other European allies, Rice was unable to convince Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that fresh sanctions were urgently needed.

Gates, in his speech, pressed Gulf nations to back sanctions to force Iran to suspend enrichment, and to demand that Iran "openly affirm that it does not intend to develop nuclear weapons in the future."

In a complex region where partnerships do not come easy, Gates said the countries need to pull together and develop regional air and missile defense systems.

Gates, who was in Iraq earlier this week, also issued a stern call for the Gulf nations to cast aside their sectarian differences and support the struggling new government there.

"The progress is real. But it is also fragile," he said. "The Iraqi government must use this breathing space bought with the blood of American, Coalition and Iraqi troops to pass critical legislation."

He told the gathering that the decline in violence is due to new military tactics, the improved Iraqi military, the decision by some militants to reject terrorism and the "groundswell of ordinary citizens who have risen up to fight against al-Qaida."

Nations in the Middle East, he said, have the most to lose if Iraq dissolves in chaos, and the most to gain if it becomes a stable, secure trading partner.

"I urge you to exercise your influence with the Iraqis and encourage them to meet their own goals and expectations, to live up to their own promises," said Gates. "For other Arabs to withhold support and friendship because of the composition of Iraq's government ... is to increase the risk of the very outcome many in the region fear."

Gates ended his speech with a grim warning against underestimating the United States.

Some countries, he said, "may believe our resolve has been corroded by the challenges we face at home and abroad. This would be a grave misconception."

Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, Fascist Italy and the former Soviet Union all made that miscalculation, Gates said. "All paid the price. All are on the ash heap of history."

Gates' stop in Bahrain is the last stop on a frenetic, weeklong tour of the region, which included meetings with military commanders on the battlefields in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Bomb, Bomb, Bomb; Bomb, Bomb, Iran'

Candidate Watch
'The Washington Post
12/4/07

"We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program...A growing amount of intelligence indicates Iran was engaged in covert uranium conversion and uranium enrichment activity, but we judge that these efforts probably were halted in response to the fall 2003 halt, and that these efforts probably had not been restarted through at least mid-2007."

--National Intelligence Estimate, released December 3, 2007.

There has been a lot of loose talk about Iran's nuclear capabilities out on the campaign trail. Here is a sampling of campaign rhetoric undercut by the publication of the latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, representing the consensus view of the CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies.

Rudy Giuliani:

"As we all know, Iran is seeking nuclear weapons and they're threatening to use them."
--Speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition, October 16, 2007

John McCain:

"There's no doubt that [Iran is] moving forward with the acquisition of a nuclear weapon."
--Republican debate, September 5, 2007.

McCain caused some controversy back in April when he suggested that the Beach Boys' song, "Barbara Ann," should have new lyrics reflecting the present-day situation in the Middle East. He entertained an audience by singing the opening line:

"Bomb, bomb, bomb,
Bomb, bomb, Iran."

Mitt Romney:

"I believe that Iran's leaders and ambitions represent the greatest threat to the world since the fall of the Soviet Union, and before that, Nazi Germany....The Iranian regime threatens not only Israel, but also every other nation in the region, and ultimately the world."
--Speech in Herzliya, Israel, January 23, 2007

Hillary Clinton:

"Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is in the forefront of that, as they are in the sponsorship of terrorism."
--Democratic debate, Philadelphia, October 30, 2007, explaining why she voted in favor of a resolution declaring the Revolutionary Guard a "terrorist" organization.

The Facts

Republican candidates, and some Democrats, have been vying with each other to make bellicose statements about Iran. The assumption behind many of these statements has been that the Iranian regime of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is pushing full speed ahead with a nuclear weapons program. While there is no doubt that Iran has been processing uranium for what it claims is a civilian nuclear program, in defiance of United Nations resolutions, it suspended its military program in 2003, according to the NIE.

Last August, President Bush mistakenly stated that the Iranian government had "proclaimed its desire to build a nuclear weapon." (Iran has never said it wants to develop a nuclear weapon. It claims that its nuclear program is purely civilian, although it has had difficulty explaining why it needs to develop nuclear power when it has ample oil reserves.) During an October 17 press conference, he warned that an Iranian nuclear bomb could lead to "World War III." But he was more circumspect when asked whether "you definitively believe Iran wants to build a nuclear weapon." His reply was a model of incoherence, which becomes more explicable in light of the latest NIE:

I think so long -- until they suspend and/or make it clear that they -- that their statements aren't real, yeah, I believe they want to have the capacity, the knowledge, in order to make a nuclear weapon. And I know it's in the world's interest to prevent them from doing so. I believe that the Iranian -- if Iran had a nuclear weapon, it would be a dangerous threat to world peace.

It is almost certainly true, as Bush says, that Iran wants to have the "capacity" or "knowledge" to build a nuclear weapon. But there is an important distinction between that and saying that it has proclaimed its intent to build a bomb, or is actually developing nuclear weapons. Past intelligence failures serve as a reminder of the danger of making definitive statements on such matters, without carefully examining the actual evidence.

The Pinocchio Test

I will hold off on Pinocchios for the time being, but let me know if you think that the candidates have been telling the truth on Iran. If you come across quotes from other presidential candidates that conflict with the latest NIE on Iran, please post them in the comments section.

VERDICT PENDING.

Younger Muslims Tune In to Upbeat Religious Message

By Kevin Sullivan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, December 2, 2007; A01

CAIRO -- Muna el-Leboudy, a 22-year-old medical student, had a terrible secret: She wanted to be a filmmaker. The way she understood her Muslim faith, it was haram -- forbidden -- to dabble in movies, music or any art that might pique sexual desires.

Then one day in September, she flipped on her satellite TV and saw Moez Masoud.

A Muslim televangelist not much older than herself, in a stylish goatee and Western clothes, Masoud, 29, was preaching about Islam in youthful Arabic slang.

He said imams who outlawed art and music were misinterpreting their faith. He talked about love and relationships, the need to be compassionate toward homosexuals and tolerant of non-Muslims. Leboudy had never heard a Muslim preacher speak that way.

"Moez helps us understand everything about our religion -- not from 1,400 years ago, but the way we live now," said Leboudy, wearing a scarlet hijab over her hair.

She said she still plans a career in medicine, but she's also starting classes in film directing. "After I heard Moez," she said, "I decided to be the one who tries to change things."

Masoud is one of a growing number of young Muslim preachers who are using satellite television to promote an upbeat and tolerant brand of Islam.

Television preaching in the Middle East was once largely limited to elderly scholars in white robes reading holy texts from behind a desk, emphasizing the afterlife over this life, and sometimes inciting violence against nonbelievers. But as TV has evolved from one or two heavily controlled state channels to hundreds of diverse, private satellite offerings, Masoud and perhaps a dozen other young men -- plus a few women -- have emerged as increasingly popular alternatives.

Masoud and others promote "a sweet orthodoxy, which stresses the humane and compassionate" as an alternative to "unthinking rage," said Abdallah Schleifer, a specialist in Islam and electronic media at the American University in Cairo.

As a "contemporary figure," Masoud is fast becoming an influential star among youth from "a middle-class full of yearning" who will eventually become decision-makers across the Middle East, Schleifer said. And as a product of American-founded schools in the region, Masoud is able to speak with authority about Western values in a way many others can't. His most recent show, a 20-part series that aired this fall on Iqra, one of the region's leading religious channels, attracted millions of viewers from Syria to Morocco. Clips of the show appeared immediately on YouTube, and fans downloaded more than 1.5 million episodes onto their computers.

"We don't need someone to tell us that if we don't pray we will go to hell -- we need someone to follow," said Adham el-Kordy, 23, an Egyptian who is studying to be a gynecologist. "He talks about things that happen to me every day."

The new Muslim televangelists are riding a satellite TV boom that began after the Persian Gulf War in 1991, when the region's elites were shocked by the power of CNN. The Middle East now has at least 370 satellite channels, nearly triple the number three years ago, according to Arab Advisors Group, a Jordan-based research firm. Among channels that offer news, movies and music videos are 27 dedicated to Islamic religious programming, up from five two years ago.

On the religious channels, some funded by governments and others by wealthy investors, voices such as Masoud's still compete for attention with extremists'. It is too soon to fully gauge the long-term impact of the youthful preachers, but interviews with viewers as well as religion and media analysts made it clear they are a rising force.

"Governments have realized that the good old days of controlling what people watch on TV are over," said Jawad Abbassi, general manager of Arab Advisors Group. "This has also rattled the religious conservatives. They don't like it that suddenly there is competition."

In her home in northern Egypt, Leboudy teared up when talking about Masoud. "Without satellite, I never would have heard of Moez," she said. "He is something I have been searching for my whole life."

'I Try to Give Them Hope'

On a recent Monday night in Alexandria, the ancient Mediterranean city on Egypt's north coast, more than 1,500 people poured into a huge hall to hear Masoud speak.

The crowd divided by sex, as is customary in much of the Muslim world. Women sat on folding chairs behind men who sat close to the stage on large red carpets. A few women wore black veils covering everything but their eyes, but most wore brightly colored veils that covered only their hair. Many wore tight designer jeans and carried expensive purses. The men were mostly cleanshaven and stylish, wearing jeans and Timberland and Nike shoes.

They were mostly in their late teens or 20s, university students or young professionals who had heard about the event on Masoud's Web site or on his popular page on Facebook.

Most of them had first seen Masoud on his recent series on Iqra, called "The Right Way." The show was filmed in MTV style, with quick-cut camera shots showing Masoud on the streets of Cairo, Istanbul and London, and Jiddah and Medina in Saudi Arabia. Masoud interviewed young Muslims and non-Muslims on topics such as alcohol and marijuana, veils for women, romance and terrorism. As he spoke in London, the bare legs of British women in miniskirts walking past him were blurred out to conform to Muslim standards of modesty.

As the lights came up in Alexandria, Masoud, tall and trim, wearing corduroy pants and a maroon, open-necked shirt, descended stairs at the back of the stage to loud applause.

"Salaam aleikum," he said, urging his audience to bow their heads for an opening prayer. For the next 90 minutes, Masoud worked the stage like a seasoned performer, his voice rising and then falling to a whisper, mixing Koranic verses with jokes and parables.

"We will be responsible to God on Judgment Day," he said, arguing that violence against non-Muslims violates God's will. "He will ask: Did you represent our religion correctly? If you feel happy that non-Muslims are being killed, this is wrong. They are our brothers."

Many Muslim preachers say it is sinful for unmarried women and men to mingle without supervision. But Masoud told his young crowd that while sex before marriage was wrong, it was important for men and women to get to know one another.

"A lot of Muslims act as if we can't enjoy this life, we can only enjoy the afterlife," he said. "That is not right. We should enjoy life, enjoy music and art. This life is ours and we should enjoy it." But, he added, "If you really truly love God and feel that all your pleasure comes from God, anything else will pale in comparison."

As soon as Masoud finished, dozens of young people pushed toward the stage to talk to him. "He's better than Brad Pitt," one woman said.

Some handed Masoud their cellphones. He punched in his number, so they could send him a text message with their question.

"He talks to young people the way we talk," said Raguia Rihane, 21, an electrical engineering student wearing a veil and a denim jacket. "I want to be right in everything I do, but to live happily while being right. He makes us understand our religion in a correct and simple way."

For nearly two hours after the end of the lecture, Masoud took people aside and listened to their problems, some told through tears.

"They feel there's no hope for them, so I try to give them hope," he said, when an aide finally coaxed him from the crowd. "There's a market gap for that. There's a niche that needs to be filled."

Redefining 'Muslim'

Masoud speaks like an advertising executive because he is one; his preaching is only part time. His day job is producing and directing commercials. He has written some musical jingles, including one for a Chinese restaurant called Wok and Roll, set to the American oldie "Rock Around the Clock."

He grew up in Kuwait and attended American high school there, later graduating from the elite American University in Cairo.

His easy fluency with English and American culture adds to criticism that Masoud and other new-generation preachers, such as the well-known Amr Khaled, are pushing a sort of Westernized "Islam lite." After his speech in Alexandria, an angry older woman in a black veil pushed her way to the front of the crowd. "Why don't you talk more about punishment?" she said, urging a more tough-love approach to preaching.

Masoud smiled at her and said, "Thanks for your advice."

In an interview in his Cairo apartment, where he lives with his wife and young son, Masoud said he has memorized the entire Koran -- he recites long passages with ease. He said he has spent the past six years in intensive study of Islam with renowned scholars, including Ali Gomaa, the grand mufti of Egypt.

As fundamental teachings, Masoud advocates adherence to prayer five times a day, peace toward all and abstinence from alcohol, sex outside of marriage and violence. Beyond those principles, he said, Islam is suffering from a "crisis of interpretation."

"I'm sure Osama bin Laden knows a lot of the Koran," he said. "But when a Muslim celebrates when the Twin Towers collapse, you have a big problem."

When a Danish newspaper printed unflattering cartoons of the prophet Muhammad last year, Masoud and three other young Muslim preachers went to Denmark for dialogue, over the angry objections of more traditional preachers who urged confrontation.

In recent years, Schleifer said, the Arab world has been increasingly "Westernized" by Hollywood movies, sexually charged music videos and even television's Dr. Phil and "The Price is Right." Some Muslims have reacted with extreme, fundamentalist interpretations of Islam, while others have turned secular. Masoud, Schleifer said, offers a middle-ground solution, balancing religious devotion with an acceptance of modern life.

Relaxing with a cup of Nescafe, Masoud picked up his acoustic guitar and strummed the catchy theme music he co-wrote for his recent TV show. It has become a pop hit in Egypt and is used as a cellphone ring tone by many young people.

"There is no contradiction between real Islam and the modern world," Masoud said. "We have to redefine the word 'Muslim' for the world."

Masoud has bookshelves filled with illustrated Korans and Bibles alongside James Joyce's "Finnegans Wake" and "Ulysses." His video collection contains dry religious titles next to "The Godfather" and "Reservoir Dogs."

He interrupted an interview to pray. When he spoke, he frequently invoked the prophet Muhammad. But he also quoted Bob Dylan, Metallica and Eddie Vedder of Pearl Jam, whose songs he stores on the USB memory stick hanging from his key chain.

Masoud said that when he was a student he "lived a party lifestyle," drank, smoked, experimented with drugs and had many girlfriends.

That changed in 1995, when six people he knew died: three in car crashes, the others from cancer, a fall and a drug overdose, respectively. That year, Masoud learned he had a tumor on his spleen that required emergency surgery.

"People were dying all around me," he said. "I said, 'Allah, get me out of this one and I'll be a better person.' "

On the first day of 1996, he said, he devoted himself to God and began memorizing the Koran. He started giving talks about Islam and eventually caught the eye of producers at Arab Radio and Television, a satellite network that aired his first shows in the fall of 2002.

Compassion for Gays

In a shopping mall in Amman, Jordan, about 300 miles northeast of Cairo, a 30-year-old man named Ibrahim settled into a coffee shop chair. Two months ago, he said, he was channel surfing on his satellite TV when he came across Masoud talking about homosexuality.

"Finally somebody was speaking for me; this changed my life," said Ibrahim, who spoke on the condition that his last name not be published.

Ibrahim said he has had homosexual desires since he was 10. He said he asked his parents about sex, but they were not comfortable discussing it. He turned to religious books and came to the conclusion that sex between two men was "wrong and unnatural."

He said he has been trying to suppress his desires ever since. Filled with guilt and suicidal over his attraction to men, he said he eventually turned to a psychiatrist who prescribed antidepressants.

"I kept my secret for 18 years," he said.

In his TV show, Masoud preached that Islam forbids gay sex. But he argued that people who feel such urges cannot help feeling them. He said that those desires were a test from God, and that resisting them was a sign of strength and faith. He urged Muslims to show compassion rather than condemnation.

Ibrahim said that changed the way he felt about himself.

"Because of Moez, I am more self-confident," he said. "He told me that God selected me out of everyone to give me a very difficult test. So I have tasted a very unique flavor of spirituality that others haven't."

Ibrahim said too few people in his country discuss homosexuality -- he can't tell his family. He said he would like to create a center where gays can meet with religious counselors without fear of stigma.

"Moez has inspired me," he said. "Maybe I can even be a religious preacher one day."