Saturday, August 19, 2006

Focus On Mideast Arms Flow

U.S. and Israel, fearing a renewal of fighting, press other countries to ensure that their weaponry doesn't get into Hezbollah's hands.
By Paul Richter, Times Staff Writer
Los Angeles Times
August 19, 2006

WASHINGTON — The United States and Israel have launched a diplomatic effort to prevent other countries from helping rearm Hezbollah, warning that a resumption of the weapons flow could reignite fighting in Lebanon just as the cease-fire takes hold.

Officials have pressed major world arms suppliers — notably Russia and China — to ensure that their weaponry doesn't find its way to the Lebanese militant group. They also have urged Turkish officials to prevent any flow of weapons across their land or airspace.

Israeli officials, who were jolted by the sophistication of Hezbollah's missiles during the 34-day war, fear that the militant group could procure weapons with an even greater reach into Israel and overcome its defenses. Israeli officials have made it clear that they would try to destroy any shipment they detected, although such an attack probably would bring a Hezbollah retaliation and set off new fighting.

"We're very concerned about this issue," said one Israeli official who declined to be identified. "It's the most urgent one on the table right now."

The stepped-up effort by U.S. and Israeli officials to cut the weapons flow to Hezbollah came as U.N. officials appealed Friday for greater European participation in an expanded multinational force for Lebanon. President Bush urged France to increase its pledge of 200 troops to augment its troops already serving in Lebanon.

"France has said they'd send some troops," Bush said at Camp David. "We hope they send more."

Italy, meanwhile, formally agreed Friday to contribute troops to the Lebanon force. The government of Prime Minister Romano Prodi said the number had not yet been determined, but officials previously said they might send as many as 3,000 soldiers, a contingent that probably would be one of the largest.

As Israel sought to stem the flow of more advanced munitions to militant fighters, officials disclosed Friday that a senior Israeli delegation visited Moscow this week to complain that Russia had sold sophisticated laser-guided Kornet antitank weapons to Iran and Syria, which in turn passed them along to Hezbollah. Iran and Syria are the main backers of the group. Russia disputed the charge, saying it kept tight controls on such sales.

Turkish and Chinese diplomats could not be reached for comment Friday.

David Schenker, a former top Pentagon policy aide on issues pertaining to the Middle East, said attempts to halt the arms flow would face difficulties.

He said Russia and China had been inconsistent in their support of such efforts. Now, with China eager to maintain its close relationship with Iran, a key oil supplier to the energy-hungry Asian nation, hopes of persuading Beijing to bar weapons transfers "is a longshot at best," he said.

U.S. officials are asking that arms sales to countries such as Syria and Iran be accompanied by restrictions on resales and transfers, especially to groups such as Hezbollah. U.S. officials also may use diplomatic incentives — support for Turkey's goal of European Union membership, for instance — in pressing their case.

U.S. officials acknowledged that they had talked to Turkey about cutting off the shipment of arms by Iran across its territory, a route used this summer after Israeli forces cut off the usual land and sea routes from Syria into Lebanon.

Acting on suspected weapons transfers, Turkey twice forced Iranian planes bound for Syria to land at the Diyarbakir airport to search for rockets and other military equipment. The incidents took place July 27 and Aug. 8, the Hurriyet newspaper reported, but no military equipment was found.

A senior U.S. official, who like others insisted on anonymity because of the sensitivity of the diplomacy, said the Bush administration had "talked to any number of countries about this…. We've made the case that we want them to be alert to this, and if they find people thinking about transferring materials that may not be going to the Lebanese army, they put a stop to it." He said the United States offered its help in trying to halt the flow.

The U.S. official said it appeared that the major countries didn't want to see a return to fighting and "are pretty much on board with this." Yet he acknowledged the difficulty of maintaining an effective arms embargo, pointing to the final years of Saddam Hussein's reign in Iraq.

"No embargo is perfect," he said. "That is a concern."

U.S. officials say that United Nations members are specifically obligated to do what they can to block arms traffic to Hezbollah under the U.N. Security Council resolution adopted last week.

During the fighting, Hezbollah used its sophisticated antitank weapons with lethal effect. According to Israeli estimates, nearly half the 118 Israeli soldiers who died in the conflict were killed by such weapons.

Hezbollah also fired advanced Chinese-designed C-802 anti-ship cruise missiles at an Israeli warship July 14. One of the missiles damaged the ship and killed four Israeli sailors.

Israel disabled a portion of Hezbollah's long-range missiles in the opening hours of the conflict. But Israeli officials fear that if there is renewed fighting, Hezbollah will be better prepared. Next time, the militants may have better ways of concealing their arms, and the weapons may be deadlier, Israeli officials say. Larger, longer-range missiles could enable Hezbollah to target Tel Aviv with missile payloads capable of taking out entire city blocks, they say.

Although Israel sustained about 4,000 missile strikes in the last month, they primarily were from short-range rockets.

"The next round of this could make the last one look like a picnic," said an Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the diplomatic efforts underway.

Israel has been hoping that the new multinational force being formed for duty in Lebanon will be able to block arms shipments through Lebanon's borders, airports and seaports. But unresolved U.N. discussions about the force's duties have left unclear the extent of its role in guarding those entry points.

One U.N. official said early this week that the force would not take a direct role, acting only as an advisor at the border crossings.

Schenker, now a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he was skeptical that the U.N. force would have the manpower or the skills to halt the arms flow at the Lebanese border. But he said the Lebanese government could turn to independent international "third party monitors," an idea that has been used by Jordan and Indonesia to watch the passage of banned goods through their borders.

Schenker agreed that Israel, which may have destroyed as much as three-fourths of Hezbollah's rockets and missiles, has a huge stake in halting the rearming.

If Hezbollah is able to restore its arsenal, he said, "this whole campaign may have been for naught."

Times staff writers Tracy Wilkinson in Rome and Johanna Neuman in Washington contributed to this report.

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