Egyptians now feel the Mubarak regime has lost the initiative as momentum shifts back to the streets

Ian Black, Middle East editor
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 9 February 2011 22.08 GMT

Egyptian anti-government protesters continue to gather at Tahrir Square. Photograph: Andre Pain/EPA

Omar Suleiman may be starting to deserve the adjective "embattled" that has often been attached to his boss, Hosni Mubarak, since Egypt's uprising began.

Appointed vice-president as a safe and loyal pair of hands, Mubarak's former intelligence chief has been mandated to run "an inclusive and serious national dialogue with participants from the whole political spectrum to deliver an orderly transition to democracy by September".

But doubts about the regime's real intentions, present from the start of the crisis, are growing fast.

The first talks on Sunday were inconclusive. The impression is strengthening, say analysts in Egypt and abroad, that Suleiman is not serious about a constitutional review, a timetable for change, protecting freedom of expression, allowing peaceful protest, and ending the state of emergency. His remarks on Tuesday, rejecting an immediate departure by Mubarak or any "end to the regime", did not sit well with his wish to resolve the crisis through dialogue. His warning of a possible "coup" sounded like a threat of more overt military intervention than has been seen so far.

The view from Cairo is that the regime, though confused, is taking a hard line, and that the negotiations have essentially come to an end. The regime's strategy has been to play for time, believing that the protests would fade in the face of a faltering economy and government initiatives such as raising wages for state employees.

In a fast-moving situation, the mood changes from day to day. Only last Friday the government seemed to have acted wisely by not sending back its thugs to Tahrir square. That eased pressure from abroad, with the US, Britain and others tacitly accepting that Mubarak was unlikely to leave office before September. Worries about the Muslim Brotherhood taking advantage of the chaos may also have played into western calculations.

Now, with protesters showing determination and resilience after Tuesday's big rally, and another massive turnout planned for Friday, there is a tougher line from Washington. Joe Biden, the US vice-president, urged Suleiman to rescind the emergency laws immediately.

Egyptians now feel that the regime has lost the initiative as momentum has shifted away from negotiations and back towards the street. Even if unco-ordinated, strikes involving thousands of workers fuel an atmosphere of confrontation, while sporadic violence and evidence of brutality by the security forces ensure that Egypt's tense standoff continues. Omar Suleiman does not appear to be able to resolve it.