Poll Shows Skepticism in U.S. Over Peace in Mideast
By JIM RUTENBERG and MEGAN C. THEE
The New York Times
July 27, 2006
Americans are overwhelmingly pessimistic about the state of affairs in the Middle East, with majorities doubtful there will ever be peace between Israel and its neighbors, or that American troops will be able to leave Iraq anytime soon, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
A majority said the war between Israel and Hezbollah will lead to a wider war. And while almost half of those polled approved of President Bush’s handling of the crisis, a majority said they preferred the United States leave it to others to resolve.
Over all, the poll found a strong isolationist streak in a nation clearly rattled by more than four years of war, underscoring the challenge for Mr. Bush as he tries to maintain public support for his effort to stabilize Iraq and spread democracy through the Middle East.
The concerns expressed over the direction of foreign policy also highlight some of the pitfalls facing Republicans as they head toward the November elections with national security front and center.
A majority of respondents, 56 percent, said they supported a timetable for a reduction in United States forces in Iraq, a question the two parties have been sparring over, with the White House and most Republicans in Congress taking the position that setting a timetable would send the wrong message. More than half of that group said they supported a withdrawal even if it meant Iraq would fall into the hands of insurgents.
Americans support the idea of putting an international peacekeeping force on the border between Israel and Lebanon to calm tensions there, the poll found, but most do not want United States troops to be a part of it.
By a wide margin, the poll found, Americans did not believe the United States should take the lead in solving international conflicts in general, with 59 percent saying it should not, and 31 percent saying it should. That is a significant shift from a CBS News poll in September 2002 — one year after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks — when the public was far more evenly split on the issue.
Yet, in the latest poll, 47 percent gave Mr. Bush good marks for handling the situation in Israel, with 27 percent disapproving and 26 percent saying they did not know. That was the highest registration of approval for the president in any of the poll’s performance measures.
Mr. Bush has experienced a slight increase in his overall job approval rating since the last New York Times/CBS News poll, in May, indicating that the steady erosion in his support over the last year has leveled off and even improved by a few percentage points. Thirty-six percent of those surveyed said they approved of the way he was doing his job, up from 31 percent in May.
But with 55 percent saying they disapproved of his performance, the numbers remain far below the comfort zone for a sitting president during a tough midterm election season. In what could be another warning sign for incumbents, more than twice as many people believe the country is heading in the wrong direction than believe it is heading in the right direction. Only 35 percent of respondents said they approved of Mr. Bush’s handling of foreign policy in general, though that was up from the 27 percent in May, and a majority expressed doubt about whether the president had the respect of foreign leaders.
Support for the president’s staunch backing of Israel goes only so far: 39 percent indicated they approved of it, but 40 percent said the United States should avoid saying anything at all about the conflict (Only 7 percent said the United States should criticize Israel, though many respondents cast blame for the conflict on both sides).
The poll was based on telephone interviews conducted July 21 through July 25 with 1,127 adults. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. The poll was taken as the war between Israel and Hezbollah raged, and during a particularly bloody period in Baghdad, events that have received heavy television news coverage.
In a common refrain among respondents regarding the Israel-Hezbollah war, Sharon Schierloh, 62, a retired factory worker from Ottawa, Ohio, said: “Let the Israelis take care of the problems in their area. We need to stay out of that because our troops are spread too thin.” She spoke in a follow-up interview after participating in the poll.
If Mr. Bush and the Republicans could not find much good news in the poll, they could at least pinpoint some signs of abatement in what had been a decidedly downward trend for them, starting with Mr. Bush’s slightly improved approval ratings.
Congressional Republicans are facing what seems to be one of the worst environments for a majority party since 1994 — when they swept control of both chambers from the Democrats — and, following the general rule, the president’s fortunes could heavily affect theirs.
Forty-three percent of those surveyed said they had a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, up from 37 percent in May. But when asked their view of how Congress was handling its job as a whole — a question whose answer tends to reflect prospects for incumbents — 28 percent said they approved, up from 23 percent in May. But 58 percent said they disapproved.
Democrats fared better, with 52 percent of those polled saying they had a positive view of the party and 41 percent saying they had a negative one. And 45 percent of registered voters polled said they would vote for the Democrat running in their district this fall as opposed to the 35 percent who favored the Republican.
Democrats also seemed to have public support on several major issues. Their push for a higher minimum wage has wide public support, according to the poll. Over all, 85 percent of respondents supported a Democratic proposal raising the minimum wage over the next two years to $7.25 an hour from $5.15 an hour, including majorities of Republicans and independents. House moderates who support a raise in the minimum wage are prevailing upon more conservative House leaders — who have been opposed to one — to allow a vote on the issue.
And 59 percent of those polled said they approved of medical research using embryonic stem cells. Mr. Bush used his veto power for the first time in his presidency last week to reject a Congressional bill expanding federal financing for such research. Democrats received higher marks on handling the economy, while Republicans received higher marks on handling terrorism. And more respondents approve of the president’s handling of terrorism than disapprove, a change from the last Times/CBS poll when opinion was split.
But there was agreement that perceptions about war and peace could have major resonance in the fall. More than twice as many respondents — 63 percent versus 30 percent — said the Iraq war had not been worth the American lives and dollars lost. Only a quarter of respondents said they thought the American presence in Iraq had been a stabilizing force in the region, with 41 percent saying it had made the Middle East less stable.
But respondents were essentially split over whether the invasion was the right thing to do.
The New York Times
July 27, 2006
Americans are overwhelmingly pessimistic about the state of affairs in the Middle East, with majorities doubtful there will ever be peace between Israel and its neighbors, or that American troops will be able to leave Iraq anytime soon, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
A majority said the war between Israel and Hezbollah will lead to a wider war. And while almost half of those polled approved of President Bush’s handling of the crisis, a majority said they preferred the United States leave it to others to resolve.
Over all, the poll found a strong isolationist streak in a nation clearly rattled by more than four years of war, underscoring the challenge for Mr. Bush as he tries to maintain public support for his effort to stabilize Iraq and spread democracy through the Middle East.
The concerns expressed over the direction of foreign policy also highlight some of the pitfalls facing Republicans as they head toward the November elections with national security front and center.
A majority of respondents, 56 percent, said they supported a timetable for a reduction in United States forces in Iraq, a question the two parties have been sparring over, with the White House and most Republicans in Congress taking the position that setting a timetable would send the wrong message. More than half of that group said they supported a withdrawal even if it meant Iraq would fall into the hands of insurgents.
Americans support the idea of putting an international peacekeeping force on the border between Israel and Lebanon to calm tensions there, the poll found, but most do not want United States troops to be a part of it.
By a wide margin, the poll found, Americans did not believe the United States should take the lead in solving international conflicts in general, with 59 percent saying it should not, and 31 percent saying it should. That is a significant shift from a CBS News poll in September 2002 — one year after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks — when the public was far more evenly split on the issue.
Yet, in the latest poll, 47 percent gave Mr. Bush good marks for handling the situation in Israel, with 27 percent disapproving and 26 percent saying they did not know. That was the highest registration of approval for the president in any of the poll’s performance measures.
Mr. Bush has experienced a slight increase in his overall job approval rating since the last New York Times/CBS News poll, in May, indicating that the steady erosion in his support over the last year has leveled off and even improved by a few percentage points. Thirty-six percent of those surveyed said they approved of the way he was doing his job, up from 31 percent in May.
But with 55 percent saying they disapproved of his performance, the numbers remain far below the comfort zone for a sitting president during a tough midterm election season. In what could be another warning sign for incumbents, more than twice as many people believe the country is heading in the wrong direction than believe it is heading in the right direction. Only 35 percent of respondents said they approved of Mr. Bush’s handling of foreign policy in general, though that was up from the 27 percent in May, and a majority expressed doubt about whether the president had the respect of foreign leaders.
Support for the president’s staunch backing of Israel goes only so far: 39 percent indicated they approved of it, but 40 percent said the United States should avoid saying anything at all about the conflict (Only 7 percent said the United States should criticize Israel, though many respondents cast blame for the conflict on both sides).
The poll was based on telephone interviews conducted July 21 through July 25 with 1,127 adults. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. The poll was taken as the war between Israel and Hezbollah raged, and during a particularly bloody period in Baghdad, events that have received heavy television news coverage.
In a common refrain among respondents regarding the Israel-Hezbollah war, Sharon Schierloh, 62, a retired factory worker from Ottawa, Ohio, said: “Let the Israelis take care of the problems in their area. We need to stay out of that because our troops are spread too thin.” She spoke in a follow-up interview after participating in the poll.
If Mr. Bush and the Republicans could not find much good news in the poll, they could at least pinpoint some signs of abatement in what had been a decidedly downward trend for them, starting with Mr. Bush’s slightly improved approval ratings.
Congressional Republicans are facing what seems to be one of the worst environments for a majority party since 1994 — when they swept control of both chambers from the Democrats — and, following the general rule, the president’s fortunes could heavily affect theirs.
Forty-three percent of those surveyed said they had a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, up from 37 percent in May. But when asked their view of how Congress was handling its job as a whole — a question whose answer tends to reflect prospects for incumbents — 28 percent said they approved, up from 23 percent in May. But 58 percent said they disapproved.
Democrats fared better, with 52 percent of those polled saying they had a positive view of the party and 41 percent saying they had a negative one. And 45 percent of registered voters polled said they would vote for the Democrat running in their district this fall as opposed to the 35 percent who favored the Republican.
Democrats also seemed to have public support on several major issues. Their push for a higher minimum wage has wide public support, according to the poll. Over all, 85 percent of respondents supported a Democratic proposal raising the minimum wage over the next two years to $7.25 an hour from $5.15 an hour, including majorities of Republicans and independents. House moderates who support a raise in the minimum wage are prevailing upon more conservative House leaders — who have been opposed to one — to allow a vote on the issue.
And 59 percent of those polled said they approved of medical research using embryonic stem cells. Mr. Bush used his veto power for the first time in his presidency last week to reject a Congressional bill expanding federal financing for such research. Democrats received higher marks on handling the economy, while Republicans received higher marks on handling terrorism. And more respondents approve of the president’s handling of terrorism than disapprove, a change from the last Times/CBS poll when opinion was split.
But there was agreement that perceptions about war and peace could have major resonance in the fall. More than twice as many respondents — 63 percent versus 30 percent — said the Iraq war had not been worth the American lives and dollars lost. Only a quarter of respondents said they thought the American presence in Iraq had been a stabilizing force in the region, with 41 percent saying it had made the Middle East less stable.
But respondents were essentially split over whether the invasion was the right thing to do.
posted by Hanan Elbadry at 6:58 AM
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