Friday, April 21, 2006

IMF lists Israel as 'developed country'

By Moti Bassok
Haaretz
21/04/2006

The International Monetary Fund has included Israel in its list of 29 developed countries in its World Economic Outlook, published yesterday prior to its spring meeting in Washington DC this weekend. Until now, Israel was categorized with emerging economies.

IMF projections for Israel are positive and complimentary. Coming off growth rates of 4.4 percent for 2004, and 5.2 percent for 2005, the report projects economic growth of 4.2 percent for both 2006 and 2007. Israel's sustainable growth is estimated at 4.5-5 percent.

The fund estimates that 2005 growth was accelerated by domestic consumption and a recovery in the tourism sector. The high growth increased inflation risks and forced the central bank to raise lending rates in October and November. The IMF expects the substantial growth to continue despite political and security risks.

The IMF also expects the consumer price index to rise 2.4 percent this year and 2 percent in 2007 - the midpoint in the government inflation target of 1-3 percent.

Unemployment, which was 10.3 percent in 2004 and 9 percent in 2005, is expected to fall to 8.5 percent in 2006 and 8.2 percent in 2007, which would mark a fourteen-year low.

The IMF notes that Israel's new government will need to determine budget allocations for 2006 and 2007 that will allow it to meet the deficit target of 3 percent of gross domestic product, and to steadily reduce Israel's high national debt, which is more than 100 percent of GDP.

IMF boosted global growth projections by 0.6 percent to 4.9 percent for 2006, and by 0.3 percent for 2007, to 4.7 percent.

IMF projects th at including Israel, the entire Middle East, most of which benefits from rising oil prices, will see economic growth of 5.7 percent this year and 5.4 percent in 2007. The IMF estimates that oil prices will rise 14.8 percent this year; but for 2007, the fund only projects a 2.9 percent rise in oil prices.

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