What Do The Iraqis Really Want?
On the eve of their election, a TIME-ABC News poll shows, Iraqis are surprisingly upbeat--yet critical of the U.S.
Time Magazine
Monday, Dec. 12, 2005
Although Saddam Hussein's trial has become must-watch TV for many Iraqis, a majority of citizens say they have little interest now in dealing with members of his ousted regime, according to an exclusive poll by TIME, ABC News and several other organizations. What interests Iraqis more is this week's election for the National Assembly, in which some 7,000 candidates will be competing for 275 seats. More than three-quarters of the Iraqis polled expressed confidence that the election will create a stable government.
The TIME-ABC News poll, for which 1,711 Iraqis were interviewed in person in October and November, also showed Iraqis overall to be fairly confident about the future. Not surprisingly, however, the numbers varied dramatically from region to region. Results in areas dominated by Sunnis, who were forced from power after Saddam's fall, were relentlessly downbeat: only 25% said life is better since the war began, and just 21% said they feel very safe in their neighborhoods. In Shi'ite regions, 59% said life is better since the war started, and 82% characterized their neighborhoods as very safe.
However sanguine the majority of Iraqis feel, patience with the U.S. occupation seems to be wearing thin. Nearly 60% of respondents said the U.S. and its allies have done a bad job carrying out their responsibilities in Iraq, while 65% said they oppose the troops' presence in the country. But almost everyone agrees on the nation's No. 1 priority: improving public security.
IRAQIS HAVE STRONG FAITH IN THE FUTURE ...
Overall, how would you say things are going these days ...
... in your life?
Very well .......... 22%
Quite well .......... 49%
Quite badly .......... 18%
Very badly .......... 11%
... in Iraq overall?
Very well .......... 14%
Quite well .......... 30%
Quite badly .......... 23%
Very badly .......... 30%
What is your expectation for how things will be a year from now ...
... in your life?
Better .......... 64%
Same .......... 14%
Worse .......... 12%
... in Iraq overall?
Better .......... 69%
Same .......... 11%
Worse .......... 11% ...
BUT WANT SECURITY TO BE RESTORED
What is your main priority for Iraq over the next 12 months? (Top five answers) Regaining public security .......... 57% Getting U.S. forces out .......... 10% Rebuilding infrastructure .......... 9% Increasing oil production .......... 7% Having a stable government .......... 5%
63% said dealing with members of the Saddam Hussein regime is no priority at all
How has the security situation changed since Iraq regained sovereignty in June 2004?
Those saying it's better Better: 41% Don't know: 10%
Who is responsible for the improvement?
Iraqi police .......... 28%
Government .......... 22%
Iraqi army .......... 12%
Security forces .......... 10%
Those saying it's worse
Worse: 31%
Same: 18%
Who is responsible for the deterioration?
Americans .......... 34%
Government .......... 30%
Terrorists .......... 17%
Iraqi police .......... 5%
Do you think security will improve or worsen in a year?
Improve .......... 70%
Worsen .......... 12%
How safe do you feel in your neighborhood?
Very safe .......... 63%
Not very safe ..........30%
OPTIMISM, BUT OLD DIVISIONS REMAIN Iraqi public opinion is remarkably upbeat, but behind the numbers are the ethnic rivalries that have long split the country. The Sunnis, who held power under Saddam Hussein, feel the most aggrieved
ENTIRE COUNTRY
Life is better since the war .......... 51% U.S.
was right to invade Iraq .......... 46%
Feel very safe in neighborhood .......... 63%
Approve of new constitution .......... 70%
Oppose coalition forces .......... 64%
KURDISH AREA
Life is better since the war .......... 73%
U.S. was right to invade Iraq .......... 80%
Feel very safe in neighborhood .......... 91%
Approve of new constitution .......... 88%
Oppose coalition forces .......... 22%
SHIITE AREA
Life is better since the war .......... 59%
U.S. was right to invade Iraq .......... 58%
Feel very safe in neighborhood .......... 82%
Approve of new constitution .......... 85%
Oppose coalition forces .......... 59%
BAGHDAD AREA
Life is better since the war .......... 59%
U.S. was right to invade Iraq .......... 47%
Feel very safe in neighborhood .......... 70%
Approve of new constitution .......... 79%
Oppose coalition forces .......... 72%
SUNNI AREA
Life is better since the war .......... 25%
U.S. was right to invade Iraq .......... 16%
Feel very safe in neighborhood .......... 21%
Approve of new constitution .......... 36%
Oppose coalition forces .......... 85%
THEY WANT A STABLE DEMOCRACY ...
Which of these systems would be best for Iraq ...
... now?
A democracy .......... 57%
A dictatorship .......... 26%
An Islamic state .......... 14%
... in 5 years?
A democracy .......... 64%
A dictatorship .......... 18%
An Islamic state .......... 12%
How much confidence do you have that the elections planned for this month will create a stable Iraqi government?
A great deal .......... 42%
Quite a lot .......... 34%
Not very much .......... 14%
None .......... 5%
Percentage who think women should be able to .
vote 99%
be a doctor 84%
drive a car 80%
run for national office 78%
instruct men at work 77%
run for local office 51%
be Governor 46%
BUT HAVE LITTLE PRAISE FOR THE U.S.
Since the war, how do you feel about the way in which the U.S. and other coalition forces have carried out their responsibilities?
Very good job .......... 10%
Quite a good job .......... 27%
Quite a bad job .......... 19%
Very bad job .......... 40%
Do you support or oppose the presence of coalition forces in Iraq?
Strongly support .......... 13%
Somewhat support .......... 19%
Somewhat oppose .......... 21%
Strongly oppose .......... 44%
When should coalition forces leave Iraq?
When security is restored .......... 31%
Now .......... 26%
After a new government is in place .......... 19%
When Iraqi security forces are ready .......... 16%
This poll was conducted for TIME, ABC News, the BBC, NHK and Der Spiegel by Oxford Research International. Interviews were conducted in person from Oct. 8 to Nov. 13, in Arabic and Kurdish, among a random national sample of 1,711 Iraqis age 15 and older. Margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.
Time Magazine
Monday, Dec. 12, 2005
Although Saddam Hussein's trial has become must-watch TV for many Iraqis, a majority of citizens say they have little interest now in dealing with members of his ousted regime, according to an exclusive poll by TIME, ABC News and several other organizations. What interests Iraqis more is this week's election for the National Assembly, in which some 7,000 candidates will be competing for 275 seats. More than three-quarters of the Iraqis polled expressed confidence that the election will create a stable government.
The TIME-ABC News poll, for which 1,711 Iraqis were interviewed in person in October and November, also showed Iraqis overall to be fairly confident about the future. Not surprisingly, however, the numbers varied dramatically from region to region. Results in areas dominated by Sunnis, who were forced from power after Saddam's fall, were relentlessly downbeat: only 25% said life is better since the war began, and just 21% said they feel very safe in their neighborhoods. In Shi'ite regions, 59% said life is better since the war started, and 82% characterized their neighborhoods as very safe.
However sanguine the majority of Iraqis feel, patience with the U.S. occupation seems to be wearing thin. Nearly 60% of respondents said the U.S. and its allies have done a bad job carrying out their responsibilities in Iraq, while 65% said they oppose the troops' presence in the country. But almost everyone agrees on the nation's No. 1 priority: improving public security.
IRAQIS HAVE STRONG FAITH IN THE FUTURE ...
Overall, how would you say things are going these days ...
... in your life?
Very well .......... 22%
Quite well .......... 49%
Quite badly .......... 18%
Very badly .......... 11%
... in Iraq overall?
Very well .......... 14%
Quite well .......... 30%
Quite badly .......... 23%
Very badly .......... 30%
What is your expectation for how things will be a year from now ...
... in your life?
Better .......... 64%
Same .......... 14%
Worse .......... 12%
... in Iraq overall?
Better .......... 69%
Same .......... 11%
Worse .......... 11% ...
BUT WANT SECURITY TO BE RESTORED
What is your main priority for Iraq over the next 12 months? (Top five answers) Regaining public security .......... 57% Getting U.S. forces out .......... 10% Rebuilding infrastructure .......... 9% Increasing oil production .......... 7% Having a stable government .......... 5%
63% said dealing with members of the Saddam Hussein regime is no priority at all
How has the security situation changed since Iraq regained sovereignty in June 2004?
Those saying it's better Better: 41% Don't know: 10%
Who is responsible for the improvement?
Iraqi police .......... 28%
Government .......... 22%
Iraqi army .......... 12%
Security forces .......... 10%
Those saying it's worse
Worse: 31%
Same: 18%
Who is responsible for the deterioration?
Americans .......... 34%
Government .......... 30%
Terrorists .......... 17%
Iraqi police .......... 5%
Do you think security will improve or worsen in a year?
Improve .......... 70%
Worsen .......... 12%
How safe do you feel in your neighborhood?
Very safe .......... 63%
Not very safe ..........30%
OPTIMISM, BUT OLD DIVISIONS REMAIN Iraqi public opinion is remarkably upbeat, but behind the numbers are the ethnic rivalries that have long split the country. The Sunnis, who held power under Saddam Hussein, feel the most aggrieved
ENTIRE COUNTRY
Life is better since the war .......... 51% U.S.
was right to invade Iraq .......... 46%
Feel very safe in neighborhood .......... 63%
Approve of new constitution .......... 70%
Oppose coalition forces .......... 64%
KURDISH AREA
Life is better since the war .......... 73%
U.S. was right to invade Iraq .......... 80%
Feel very safe in neighborhood .......... 91%
Approve of new constitution .......... 88%
Oppose coalition forces .......... 22%
SHIITE AREA
Life is better since the war .......... 59%
U.S. was right to invade Iraq .......... 58%
Feel very safe in neighborhood .......... 82%
Approve of new constitution .......... 85%
Oppose coalition forces .......... 59%
BAGHDAD AREA
Life is better since the war .......... 59%
U.S. was right to invade Iraq .......... 47%
Feel very safe in neighborhood .......... 70%
Approve of new constitution .......... 79%
Oppose coalition forces .......... 72%
SUNNI AREA
Life is better since the war .......... 25%
U.S. was right to invade Iraq .......... 16%
Feel very safe in neighborhood .......... 21%
Approve of new constitution .......... 36%
Oppose coalition forces .......... 85%
THEY WANT A STABLE DEMOCRACY ...
Which of these systems would be best for Iraq ...
... now?
A democracy .......... 57%
A dictatorship .......... 26%
An Islamic state .......... 14%
... in 5 years?
A democracy .......... 64%
A dictatorship .......... 18%
An Islamic state .......... 12%
How much confidence do you have that the elections planned for this month will create a stable Iraqi government?
A great deal .......... 42%
Quite a lot .......... 34%
Not very much .......... 14%
None .......... 5%
Percentage who think women should be able to .
vote 99%
be a doctor 84%
drive a car 80%
run for national office 78%
instruct men at work 77%
run for local office 51%
be Governor 46%
BUT HAVE LITTLE PRAISE FOR THE U.S.
Since the war, how do you feel about the way in which the U.S. and other coalition forces have carried out their responsibilities?
Very good job .......... 10%
Quite a good job .......... 27%
Quite a bad job .......... 19%
Very bad job .......... 40%
Do you support or oppose the presence of coalition forces in Iraq?
Strongly support .......... 13%
Somewhat support .......... 19%
Somewhat oppose .......... 21%
Strongly oppose .......... 44%
When should coalition forces leave Iraq?
When security is restored .......... 31%
Now .......... 26%
After a new government is in place .......... 19%
When Iraqi security forces are ready .......... 16%
This poll was conducted for TIME, ABC News, the BBC, NHK and Der Spiegel by Oxford Research International. Interviews were conducted in person from Oct. 8 to Nov. 13, in Arabic and Kurdish, among a random national sample of 1,711 Iraqis age 15 and older. Margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.
posted by Hanan Elbadry at 10:08 AM
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