Israel expands war arsenal to deal with Iranian nuclear threat
By Steven Gutkin
ASSOCIATED PRESS
December 8, 2005
JERUSALEM – Israel is expanding its military arsenal to deal with what it views as the greatest threat to its existence: a nuclear attack by Iran.
It has acquired dozens of warplanes with long-range fuel tanks to allow them to reach Iran and signed a deal with Germany for two submarines reportedly capable of firing nuclear missiles.
Though Israeli security officials say a strike against Iran is not on the horizon, senior Israeli politicians have begun openly discussing the possibility of a military option – either alone or with other countries.
Such a mission would be far more complicated than the 1981 Israeli raid that destroyed an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor. It would require heavy precision bombs that can blast through underground bunkers, manned aircraft to bombard multiple targets and possibly ground commandos to make sure weapons materials are destroyed, experts say.
"It's not a target that you can find on the map, send two F15s and solve it," said Itamar Yaar, deputy head of Israel's National Security Council.
Both the United States and Israel refuse to say whether a strike plan is in the works.
Hard feelings between Israel and Iran date to just before the 1979 Islamic Revolution when the Israelis joined the United States in siding with the Shah before he was deposed.
Partly because of that, the founder of the Islamic revolution, the Ayatollah Khomeini, called Israel the "Little Satan," saving the term "Great Satan" for the U.S., Israel's patron.
The Iranian brand of Islam allows no place for a Jewish state in the Middle East, and Israel points out often that Iran is the only member of the United Nations that publicly calls for destruction of another member. Israel's animosity toward Iran stems not only from the Iranian leadership's anti-Israel statements, but also its support of armed groups like Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad.
Tensions between the countries have mounted recently amid growing concern about Iran's atomic program.
Tehran says its nuclear program is to generate electricity, not make bombs. But plans announced this week to build more nuclear power plants and to purchase 30 Tor-M1 surface-to-air missiles from Russia have raised fears.
Hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's call for Israel to be "wiped off the map" in October also set off alarms. On Thursday, the Iranian leader said the Jewish state should be moved to Europe and questioned whether the Holocaust took place.
Both Israel and the U.S. say diplomatic options should be exhausted before any military action is contemplated.
But this week, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said the ability to take out Iran's nuclear program by force "of course exists." His hard-line political rival, Benjamin Netanyahu, went further, saying he would support a pre-emptive raid.
Israel's military chief, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, said Sunday he did not believe diplomatic pressure will be enough to keep Tehran from developing the bomb and a military solution may be necessary.
"Who is the one to implement it? That is another question that I'm not going to answer. 'When?' is another question that I'm not going to answer. But there are options worldwide," he said.
U.S. officials have refrained from calling for military action, favoring diplomacy, inspections and trade sanctions. Still, President Bush has said the U.S. will not let Iran get the bomb.
Some experts argue a military strike would not be feasible because of a lack of good intelligence on targets, the existence of multiple atomic installations scattered throughout Iran, some underground or bored into mountains, and the country's increasingly sophisticated defense systems.
But others say the capability is there, a combination of precision missiles, bunker-buster bombs, airpower and elite ground forces to penetrate the most difficult sites.
The U.S. – with cruise missiles that can deliver high-explosive bombs to precise locations and B-2 bombers capable of dropping 85 500-pound bombs in a single run – could take on the task, several experts said.
Whether Israel could is an unanswered question. However, the country already has received about half the 102 American-built F-16I warplanes it ordered, with extra fuel tanks to let them reach Iran.
Israel signed a deal with Germany to build two more Dolphin submarines capable of firing atomic missiles at Iran. Israel already has three Dolphins, a key deterrent to any future nuclear confrontation.
Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, though it refuses to confirm or deny it.
Last week, Israel successfully tested its Arrow missile defense system against a missile similar to Iran's Shahab-3, which can be equipped with a nuclear warhead to reach Israel or several U.S. military installations in the Middle East.
Experts say possible targets in Iran include the Bushehr nuclear facility and a uranium conversion center at Esfahan.
David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, said any strike would be fraught with pitfalls. But a successful one would have to be a "bolt out of the blue" to prevent Iran from moving its uranium centrifuges, a key component for enriching uranium used to make nuclear bombs.
He also said ground commando raids would likely be necessary to ensure hidden tools used for atomic purposes are destroyed.
Israeli analyst Gerald Steinberg said it wouldn't be necessary to get "100 percent of the targets" to set back Iran's nuclear program. A limited operation to disrupt power supplies, block access to sites or remove key components could be enough.
He noted Iran has learned lessons from Israel's 1981 strike against the Osirak nuclear reactor near Baghdad, dispersing nuclear sites, putting facilities underground and improving defense.
"But 25 years have passed since then and the offensive capabilities of the armies involved have also advanced," he added.
Albright warned any strike, especially one that leaves some nuclear capabilities intact, would likely strengthen Iran's resolve to aggressively pursue atomic weapons.
He said Iran would most likely retaliate by making "life miserable for the United States in Iraq" and launch attacks against Israel through proxies such as Lebanon's Hezbollah guerrillas.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
December 8, 2005
JERUSALEM – Israel is expanding its military arsenal to deal with what it views as the greatest threat to its existence: a nuclear attack by Iran.
It has acquired dozens of warplanes with long-range fuel tanks to allow them to reach Iran and signed a deal with Germany for two submarines reportedly capable of firing nuclear missiles.
Though Israeli security officials say a strike against Iran is not on the horizon, senior Israeli politicians have begun openly discussing the possibility of a military option – either alone or with other countries.
Such a mission would be far more complicated than the 1981 Israeli raid that destroyed an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor. It would require heavy precision bombs that can blast through underground bunkers, manned aircraft to bombard multiple targets and possibly ground commandos to make sure weapons materials are destroyed, experts say.
"It's not a target that you can find on the map, send two F15s and solve it," said Itamar Yaar, deputy head of Israel's National Security Council.
Both the United States and Israel refuse to say whether a strike plan is in the works.
Hard feelings between Israel and Iran date to just before the 1979 Islamic Revolution when the Israelis joined the United States in siding with the Shah before he was deposed.
Partly because of that, the founder of the Islamic revolution, the Ayatollah Khomeini, called Israel the "Little Satan," saving the term "Great Satan" for the U.S., Israel's patron.
The Iranian brand of Islam allows no place for a Jewish state in the Middle East, and Israel points out often that Iran is the only member of the United Nations that publicly calls for destruction of another member. Israel's animosity toward Iran stems not only from the Iranian leadership's anti-Israel statements, but also its support of armed groups like Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad.
Tensions between the countries have mounted recently amid growing concern about Iran's atomic program.
Tehran says its nuclear program is to generate electricity, not make bombs. But plans announced this week to build more nuclear power plants and to purchase 30 Tor-M1 surface-to-air missiles from Russia have raised fears.
Hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's call for Israel to be "wiped off the map" in October also set off alarms. On Thursday, the Iranian leader said the Jewish state should be moved to Europe and questioned whether the Holocaust took place.
Both Israel and the U.S. say diplomatic options should be exhausted before any military action is contemplated.
But this week, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said the ability to take out Iran's nuclear program by force "of course exists." His hard-line political rival, Benjamin Netanyahu, went further, saying he would support a pre-emptive raid.
Israel's military chief, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, said Sunday he did not believe diplomatic pressure will be enough to keep Tehran from developing the bomb and a military solution may be necessary.
"Who is the one to implement it? That is another question that I'm not going to answer. 'When?' is another question that I'm not going to answer. But there are options worldwide," he said.
U.S. officials have refrained from calling for military action, favoring diplomacy, inspections and trade sanctions. Still, President Bush has said the U.S. will not let Iran get the bomb.
Some experts argue a military strike would not be feasible because of a lack of good intelligence on targets, the existence of multiple atomic installations scattered throughout Iran, some underground or bored into mountains, and the country's increasingly sophisticated defense systems.
But others say the capability is there, a combination of precision missiles, bunker-buster bombs, airpower and elite ground forces to penetrate the most difficult sites.
The U.S. – with cruise missiles that can deliver high-explosive bombs to precise locations and B-2 bombers capable of dropping 85 500-pound bombs in a single run – could take on the task, several experts said.
Whether Israel could is an unanswered question. However, the country already has received about half the 102 American-built F-16I warplanes it ordered, with extra fuel tanks to let them reach Iran.
Israel signed a deal with Germany to build two more Dolphin submarines capable of firing atomic missiles at Iran. Israel already has three Dolphins, a key deterrent to any future nuclear confrontation.
Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, though it refuses to confirm or deny it.
Last week, Israel successfully tested its Arrow missile defense system against a missile similar to Iran's Shahab-3, which can be equipped with a nuclear warhead to reach Israel or several U.S. military installations in the Middle East.
Experts say possible targets in Iran include the Bushehr nuclear facility and a uranium conversion center at Esfahan.
David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, said any strike would be fraught with pitfalls. But a successful one would have to be a "bolt out of the blue" to prevent Iran from moving its uranium centrifuges, a key component for enriching uranium used to make nuclear bombs.
He also said ground commando raids would likely be necessary to ensure hidden tools used for atomic purposes are destroyed.
Israeli analyst Gerald Steinberg said it wouldn't be necessary to get "100 percent of the targets" to set back Iran's nuclear program. A limited operation to disrupt power supplies, block access to sites or remove key components could be enough.
He noted Iran has learned lessons from Israel's 1981 strike against the Osirak nuclear reactor near Baghdad, dispersing nuclear sites, putting facilities underground and improving defense.
"But 25 years have passed since then and the offensive capabilities of the armies involved have also advanced," he added.
Albright warned any strike, especially one that leaves some nuclear capabilities intact, would likely strengthen Iran's resolve to aggressively pursue atomic weapons.
He said Iran would most likely retaliate by making "life miserable for the United States in Iraq" and launch attacks against Israel through proxies such as Lebanon's Hezbollah guerrillas.
posted by Hanan Elbadry at 9:16 PM
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