190,000 and Other Terrorism Numbers
William M. Arkin
December 13, 2005
Numbers are funny things. No sooner did the President acknowledge that as many as 30,000 Iraqis have died since March 2003, White House counselor Dan Bartlett was out there backpedaling, say that the estimate was not official.
I guess Bartlett didn't get the memo: what he should have said was 'clearly the President is trying to address people's concerns even if he is only providing a best guess.'
I have another number, one that has intrigued me ever since I read it. According to a classified briefing of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), the intelligence community clearinghouse, the database of all U.S. government information on international terrorists contains over 190,000 unique individuals.
I invite readers to opine as to whether that number seems large or small, whether 190,000 individuals out there justifies the current "war on terror" or is something we should be concerned about or not.
According to intelligence analysts familiar with the various "watchlisting" and terrorist identity databases maintained by the U.S. intelligence community, including the NCTC's database and the FBI-administered Terrorist Screening Center, the 190,000 unique individuals (as of June, 2005) includes individuals who have been killed, captured or identified by U.S. intelligence before and after 9/11.
I've collected some numbers to try to put the 190,000 in perspective:
83,000 individuals have been detained by the U.S. since 9/11, according to Associated Press reports in November.
82,400 individuals have been detained in Afghanistan and Iraq since October 2001, according to the November AP reports.
Roughly 14,500 detainees remain in U.S. custody, according to the AP.
The peak number of total detainees in U.S. custody in Iraq -- some 13,900 -- was reached on November 1, 2005, according to the AP.
Some 5,569 detainees have been held for more than six months in Iraq, 3,801 have been held for more than one year,229 for more than two years, according to the AP.
Over 3,000 al Qaeda suspects had been detained as of July 2003, according to the White House. The DOD said in April 2003 that more than 3,000 "terrorist cadre" -- the footsoldiers and cell members -- had been captured in over 100 countries. The White House said that as of April 2002, more than 1,600 terrorists and their supporters have been arrested or detained in 95 foreign nations.
Some 700 detainees were sent to Guantanamo as of April 2003. Just under 500 remain there today.
More than 650 "enemy combatants" were under U.S. control in Afghanistan as of June 2003, according to the State Department.
Pakistan has killed or captured more than 600 terrorists, according to the White House, as of July 2005.
Over 400 individuals and entities have been designated terrorist supporters under Executive Order, resulting in nearly $150 million in frozen assets and millions more blocked in transit or seized at borders, according to the White House, as of December 2005.
The U.S. had captured 376 foreign fighters in Iraq in 2005, as of October, according to the military in Baghdad. Between April and October, 311 foreign fighters were captured, 78 from Egypt, 66 from Syria, 41 from Sudan, 32 from Saudi Arabia, 17 from Jordan, 13 from Iran, 12 from Palestine, and 10 from Tunisia. Less than 10 individuals were capture from 18 different countries.
The Department of Justice has charged more than 350 individuals uncovered in the course of terrorist investigations, and convicted or secured guilty pleas from over 185 individuals, according to the White House, as of September 2004.
108 detainees are known to have died in U.S. custody, as of the middle of this year.
About 150 people are believed to have been captured and "rendered" to U.S. or foreign detention, as of October. In a December, 2002 speech, former CIA Director George Tenet said the agency and FBI had "rendered 70 terrorists to justice."
Saudi Arabia has killed or captured more than two dozen of its most wanted terrorists, according to the White House, as of July 2005.
As of April, 2003, more than 55 terrorist leaders and planners had been captured or killed since 9/11, according to the DOD. The White House said in November 2005 that the U.S. has captured or killed several of Osama bin Laden's most serious deputies, al Qaeda managers and operatives in more than 24 countries. The President said in his State of the Union speech this February that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and nine other countries have themselves captured or detained al Qaeda terrorists.
Some two to three dozen "ghost" detainees are also believed to be in CIA custody.
The White House said in August 2004 that more than three-quarters of al Qaeda's known leaders and associates have been detained or killed. In June, 2004, the White House said that over two-thirds of the known al-Qaida leadership have been captured or killed. In July, 2003, it said that 65 percent of "senior al-Qaida leaders, operational managers, and key facilitators we have been tracking" had been captured or killed.
The connotation of the government compiling all of these numbers and then selectively releasing them is that the number of "terrorists" in the world is diminishing, that we can subtract these numbers from the ranks to reach the new picture of the threat. Of course, the number of terrorists is not fixed, which is why government numbers since 9/11 about so many terrorists this or that have been met with some derision.
Every capture of a terrorist suspect in Pakistan or London or Germany, every captured insurgent in Iraq, every new fighter detained in Afghanistan results in new names in the database, or in new leads. The war on terrorism is arithmetic where there is no subtraction.
December 13, 2005
Numbers are funny things. No sooner did the President acknowledge that as many as 30,000 Iraqis have died since March 2003, White House counselor Dan Bartlett was out there backpedaling, say that the estimate was not official.
I guess Bartlett didn't get the memo: what he should have said was 'clearly the President is trying to address people's concerns even if he is only providing a best guess.'
I have another number, one that has intrigued me ever since I read it. According to a classified briefing of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), the intelligence community clearinghouse, the database of all U.S. government information on international terrorists contains over 190,000 unique individuals.
I invite readers to opine as to whether that number seems large or small, whether 190,000 individuals out there justifies the current "war on terror" or is something we should be concerned about or not.
According to intelligence analysts familiar with the various "watchlisting" and terrorist identity databases maintained by the U.S. intelligence community, including the NCTC's database and the FBI-administered Terrorist Screening Center, the 190,000 unique individuals (as of June, 2005) includes individuals who have been killed, captured or identified by U.S. intelligence before and after 9/11.
I've collected some numbers to try to put the 190,000 in perspective:
83,000 individuals have been detained by the U.S. since 9/11, according to Associated Press reports in November.
82,400 individuals have been detained in Afghanistan and Iraq since October 2001, according to the November AP reports.
Roughly 14,500 detainees remain in U.S. custody, according to the AP.
The peak number of total detainees in U.S. custody in Iraq -- some 13,900 -- was reached on November 1, 2005, according to the AP.
Some 5,569 detainees have been held for more than six months in Iraq, 3,801 have been held for more than one year,229 for more than two years, according to the AP.
Over 3,000 al Qaeda suspects had been detained as of July 2003, according to the White House. The DOD said in April 2003 that more than 3,000 "terrorist cadre" -- the footsoldiers and cell members -- had been captured in over 100 countries. The White House said that as of April 2002, more than 1,600 terrorists and their supporters have been arrested or detained in 95 foreign nations.
Some 700 detainees were sent to Guantanamo as of April 2003. Just under 500 remain there today.
More than 650 "enemy combatants" were under U.S. control in Afghanistan as of June 2003, according to the State Department.
Pakistan has killed or captured more than 600 terrorists, according to the White House, as of July 2005.
Over 400 individuals and entities have been designated terrorist supporters under Executive Order, resulting in nearly $150 million in frozen assets and millions more blocked in transit or seized at borders, according to the White House, as of December 2005.
The U.S. had captured 376 foreign fighters in Iraq in 2005, as of October, according to the military in Baghdad. Between April and October, 311 foreign fighters were captured, 78 from Egypt, 66 from Syria, 41 from Sudan, 32 from Saudi Arabia, 17 from Jordan, 13 from Iran, 12 from Palestine, and 10 from Tunisia. Less than 10 individuals were capture from 18 different countries.
The Department of Justice has charged more than 350 individuals uncovered in the course of terrorist investigations, and convicted or secured guilty pleas from over 185 individuals, according to the White House, as of September 2004.
108 detainees are known to have died in U.S. custody, as of the middle of this year.
About 150 people are believed to have been captured and "rendered" to U.S. or foreign detention, as of October. In a December, 2002 speech, former CIA Director George Tenet said the agency and FBI had "rendered 70 terrorists to justice."
Saudi Arabia has killed or captured more than two dozen of its most wanted terrorists, according to the White House, as of July 2005.
As of April, 2003, more than 55 terrorist leaders and planners had been captured or killed since 9/11, according to the DOD. The White House said in November 2005 that the U.S. has captured or killed several of Osama bin Laden's most serious deputies, al Qaeda managers and operatives in more than 24 countries. The President said in his State of the Union speech this February that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and nine other countries have themselves captured or detained al Qaeda terrorists.
Some two to three dozen "ghost" detainees are also believed to be in CIA custody.
The White House said in August 2004 that more than three-quarters of al Qaeda's known leaders and associates have been detained or killed. In June, 2004, the White House said that over two-thirds of the known al-Qaida leadership have been captured or killed. In July, 2003, it said that 65 percent of "senior al-Qaida leaders, operational managers, and key facilitators we have been tracking" had been captured or killed.
The connotation of the government compiling all of these numbers and then selectively releasing them is that the number of "terrorists" in the world is diminishing, that we can subtract these numbers from the ranks to reach the new picture of the threat. Of course, the number of terrorists is not fixed, which is why government numbers since 9/11 about so many terrorists this or that have been met with some derision.
Every capture of a terrorist suspect in Pakistan or London or Germany, every captured insurgent in Iraq, every new fighter detained in Afghanistan results in new names in the database, or in new leads. The war on terrorism is arithmetic where there is no subtraction.
posted by Hanan Elbadry at 4:55 PM
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