U.S. Challenged Over Measures Of Its Success Against Terrorism
By David Crawford
Wall Street Journal
November 25, 2005 - Pg. 5
A report to be released shortly by the Congressional Research Service questions the effectiveness of the Bush administration's measuring stick for determining success in countering terrorism.
The report says measures such as the number of terrorist incidents per year and the number of terrorists killed or captured are inadequate. Instead, it urges the use of broader social indicators, like the ability of terrorists to recruit. The Congressional Research Service is a branch agency within the Library of Congress.
Bush administration officials have argued that the U.S. is prevailing by citing figures such as the arrest or death of two-thirds of al Qaeda's senior leadership and the seizure of more than $200 million in terrorist assets.
The report represents a challenge to the Bush administration's standards for gauging progress in the war against terrorism. It is likely to add to the debate over how the U.S. can prevail in what the administration acknowledges will be a long struggle against extreme Islamic groups, and it will buttress those who argue that winning the war of ideas is as important as the military struggle against armed extremists.
Because the report hasn't been released, officials haven't had a chance to comment. But some leading terrorism experts concur with the report's conclusions. "We emphasize body counts, without acknowledging the elasticity of al Qaeda's recruiting," said Alan Krueger, a Princeton University professor who has written about how governments measure success in fighting terrorism. Mr. Krueger said al Qaeda is able to replace key personnel faster than they are killed or captured.
Congressional Research Service analyst Raphael Perl, who wrote the report, said the government lacks a method of measuring success in combating terrorism, so it is unable to judge whether its policies to combat terrorism are successful. Mr. Perl said methods developed to evaluate the strength of criminal organizations, such as drug cartels, should be applied to assess the strength of terrorist groups. According to Mr. Perl, waves of arrests sometimes strengthen rather than weaken drug cartels, forcing a criminal organization to be more secretive and robust.
Wall Street Journal
November 25, 2005 - Pg. 5
A report to be released shortly by the Congressional Research Service questions the effectiveness of the Bush administration's measuring stick for determining success in countering terrorism.
The report says measures such as the number of terrorist incidents per year and the number of terrorists killed or captured are inadequate. Instead, it urges the use of broader social indicators, like the ability of terrorists to recruit. The Congressional Research Service is a branch agency within the Library of Congress.
Bush administration officials have argued that the U.S. is prevailing by citing figures such as the arrest or death of two-thirds of al Qaeda's senior leadership and the seizure of more than $200 million in terrorist assets.
The report represents a challenge to the Bush administration's standards for gauging progress in the war against terrorism. It is likely to add to the debate over how the U.S. can prevail in what the administration acknowledges will be a long struggle against extreme Islamic groups, and it will buttress those who argue that winning the war of ideas is as important as the military struggle against armed extremists.
Because the report hasn't been released, officials haven't had a chance to comment. But some leading terrorism experts concur with the report's conclusions. "We emphasize body counts, without acknowledging the elasticity of al Qaeda's recruiting," said Alan Krueger, a Princeton University professor who has written about how governments measure success in fighting terrorism. Mr. Krueger said al Qaeda is able to replace key personnel faster than they are killed or captured.
Congressional Research Service analyst Raphael Perl, who wrote the report, said the government lacks a method of measuring success in combating terrorism, so it is unable to judge whether its policies to combat terrorism are successful. Mr. Perl said methods developed to evaluate the strength of criminal organizations, such as drug cartels, should be applied to assess the strength of terrorist groups. According to Mr. Perl, waves of arrests sometimes strengthen rather than weaken drug cartels, forcing a criminal organization to be more secretive and robust.
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